Global| Aug 05 2002ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector fell more than expected last month, down for the second month from a peak in May. The overall index has been above 50, the dividing line for [...]
The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector fell more than expected last month, down for the second month from a peak in May.
The overall index has been above 50, the dividing line for expansion and contraction, since February.
Of the seasonally adjusted subgroups, new orders and imports fell but employment rose slightly. The not seasonally adjusted index of export orders was quite strong.
The not seasonally adjusted index of prices rose, recouping virtually all of the decline of the prior two months.
During the last five years, there has been a 51% correlation between the level of the NAPM nonmanufacturing index and quarterly growth in real GDP in the service sector.
Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index weights the components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | July | June | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Index | 53.1 | 57.2 | 48.5 | 49.0 | 59.2 | 59.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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