Global| Feb 05 2009IP Sectors All Dropping Fast
Summary
German IP is dropping fast with the headline off by 4.6% in December following a November decline of 3.8%. In the fourth quarter, German IP is falling at a 24.6% annual rate. The steel industry reports orders falling faster than any [...]
German IP is dropping fast with the headline off by 4.6% in
December following a November decline of 3.8%. In the fourth quarter,
German IP is falling at a 24.6% annual rate. The steel industry reports
orders falling faster than any time since WWII. Yr/Yr the drop in
overall output is a very substantial minus 12%; Yr/Yr weakness
permeates sectors.
The German consumer sector is not lively but since it never went anywhere it is not surprising it is now falling by the least down at a -5.8% annual rate over three months and by -5.3% Yr/Yr. Capital goods output is declining at an increasingly precipitous pace, the same is true for intermediate goods output. Construction has continued to rise in the month and is up over three-months at a faster pace than it is up over six months. Still manufacturing and, as we have previously seen, manufacturing orders are enormously weak.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | YrAgo | QTR-2-Date | |
| Total Orders | -6.9% | -5.3% | -6.3% | -53.5% | -31.8% | -27.7% | 10.6% | -49.6% |
| Foreign | -9.4% | -3.7% | -6.3% | -55.4% | -33.2% | -31.7% | 13.5% | -53.5% |
| Domestic | -4.3% | -7.0% | -6.4% | -51.8% | -30.6% | -23.4% | 7.7% | -45.3% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | -6.2% | -4.4% | -0.1% | -35.5% | -19.7% | -13.2% | 5.1% | -23.2% |
| Consumer | 2.7% | -2.3% | -0.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | -2.9% | 2.0% | -3.4% |
| Cons Durables | -3.6% | -3.6% | -1.1% | -28.6% | -15.5% | -13.0% | 0.7% | -23.8% |
| Cons Non-Durable | 3.9% | -2.0% | 0.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% | -0.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Capital Goods | -8.7% | -4.7% | 1.0% | -40.5% | -22.9% | -14.9% | 7.9% | -24.4% |
| Intermediate Goods | -8.0% | -5.4% | -1.3% | -45.4% | -26.1% | -16.9% | 3.5% | -31.1% |
| All MFG-Sales | -6.0% | -4.2% | 0.0% | -34.2% | -18.9% | -12.7% | 4.6% | -22.2% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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