Global| Feb 12 2009IP Drops Sharply Across Sectors in the Euro Area
Summary
Industrial production fell by a sharp 3% in December and is having its sharpest fall since the Euro Area data series began. The progressive growth rates show that GDP is getting weaker and weaker over shorter periods. In the fourth [...]
Industrial production fell by a sharp 3% in December and is
having its sharpest fall since the Euro Area data series began. The
progressive growth rates show that GDP is getting weaker and weaker
over shorter periods. In the fourth quarter IP in the zone is down at a
20.7% annual rate. Consumer output is down by the least at a -6.4%
pace. Intermediate goods output is down at an outsized -30% annual pace
in Q4. Capital goods output is off at a -21.2% annual rate. The country
level data show year-over-year MFG IP declines are fairly uniform
across countries. We are looking to very weak GDP results for EMU and
its member nations.
| Euro Area MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
|||
| Euro Area Detail | Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q4 |
| MFG | -3.1% | -2.4% | -1.8% | -25.6% | -22.5% | -17.8% | -13.3% | -12.2% | -8.3% | -20.7% |
| Consumer | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.2% | -6.5% | -6.5% | -6.0% | -3.7% | -4.8% | -3.9% | -6.4% |
| C-Durables | -2.8% | -2.8% | -1.9% | -26.5% | -25.6% | -19.6% | -14.6% | -13.4% | -10.5% | |
| C-Nondurables | -0.9% | -0.2% | 0.1% | -4.1% | -3.7% | -4.8% | -1.8% | -3.9% | -2.6% | |
| Intermediate | -5.7% | -3.6% | -2.8% | -39.0% | -32.7% | -27.5% | -19.9% | -18.8% | -11.8% | -30.9% |
| Capital | -2.5% | -2.6% | -2.4% | -25.9% | -24.3% | -16.9% | -13.8% | -10.8% | -8.2% | -21.2% |
| Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
||||
| MFG Only | Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2- Date |
| Germany: | -5.3% | -3.8% | -2.1% | -36.5% | -32.1% | -23.8% | -14.1% | -13.1% | -7.2% | -26.9% |
| France: IP ex Construction | -1.8% | -2.8% | -3.8% | -28.8% | -25.6% | -15.1% | -13.4% | -11.1% | -9.1% | -24.1% |
| Italy | -2.7% | -3.2% | -2.2% | -28.1% | -30.2% | -22.8% | -18.1% | -13.1% | -10.6% | -26.0% |
| Spain | 2.7% | -9.4% | -2.0% | -30.9% | -30.7% | -10.1% | -23.2% | -15.0% | -17.2% | -29.8% |
| UK: EU member | -2.2% | -3.0% | -1.6% | -24.1% | -20.3% | -16.6% | -14.0% | -10.2% | -8.4% | -19.1% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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