Global| Nov 22 2006Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Bounced Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance increased 12,000 to 321,000 last week from a slightly revised level during the prior period. Consensus expectations had been for a little changed reading of 310,000 claims. This latest figure [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance increased 12,000 to 321,000 last week from a slightly revised level during the prior period. Consensus expectations had been for a little changed reading of 310,000 claims.
This latest figure covers the survey period for November nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 21,000 (7.0%) from a depressed level during the October period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 317,000 (0.1% y/y), its highest level in nearly three months. 
There were no special factors sighted for the latest week's increase in claims. For the prior week, the report indicated that the largest increases in initial claims were in Mississippi (+547), California (+414), Massachusetts (+258), Idaho (+243), and North Carolina (+55), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-5,561), Illinois (-3,829), Pennsylvania (-3,645), Georgia (-2,977), and Florida (-2,291).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 14,000 after a 3,000 worker decline the prior week that slightly weaker than reported initially.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, the average rate since February.
Who's Worrying About Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/18/06 | 11/11/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 321 | 309 | -0.3% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,454 | -10.2% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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