Global| May 08 2003Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly more than Consensus expectations for a decline to 435,000. Initial claims fell 6.2% w/w to 425,000. That added to a 1.3% decline the week earlier which was revised shallower. The [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly more than Consensus expectations for a decline to 435,000. Initial claims fell 6.2% w/w to 425,000. That added to a 1.3% decline the week earlier which was revised shallower.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 446,000 (4.8% y/y), the highest level since mid-April 2002.
During the last ten years there has been an 81% (inverse) correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the y/y change in real GDP.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 0.2% w/w to the highest level since early-October. The prior week's figure was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.9% for the second week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 5/03/03 | 4/26/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 425.0 | 453.0 | 3.2% | 404.3 | 406.0 | 299.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,665 | -0.1% | 3,575 | 3,022 | 2,114 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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