Global| Dec 09 2004Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rose Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims unexpectedly rose another 8,000 to 357,000 on top of the 25,000 increase during Thanksgiving week. A decline to 335,000 had been the Consensus expectation. Not seasonally adjusted, claims surged [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims unexpectedly rose another 8,000 to 357,000 on top of the 25,000 increase during Thanksgiving week. A decline to 335,000 had been the Consensus expectation. Not seasonally adjusted, claims surged 147,300 last week.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 341,250 (-7.8% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 91,000 following a deepened 38,000 decline the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked back up to 2.2% from a revised 2.1% the prior week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/04/04 | 11/27/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 357 | 349 | -5.1% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,796 | -16.2% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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