Global| Dec 14 2004Industrial Production Up But Gains Slow
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production rose 0.3% in November following a downwardly revised 0.6% rise the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% rise. Production in the factory sector rose 0.3% (4.7% y/y). Slower increases recently [...]
Industrial production rose 0.3% in November following a downwardly revised 0.6% rise the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% rise.
Production in the factory sector rose 0.3% (4.7% y/y). Slower increases recently pulled the three month gain in factory sector production down to 2.0% (AR) versus this year's peak of 8.6% in April. And the slowdown has been broad based. Factory sector output excluding motor vehicles & high tech rose 0.3% in November and the three month growth rate fell to 0.8%.
Though November output in the high tech sector rose a firm 1.1%, the three month growth rate fell to 9.0% versus the peak of 38.2% in August 2003. Excluding high tech, factory output rose 0.3% last month and the three month growth rate fell to 1.2% from this year's peak of 8.2%.
Motor vehicles output fell 0.7% in November but output of appliances, furniture & carpeting rose 1.2% (-0.8% y/y). Clothing output was unchanged m/m and down 2.6% y/y)
Total capacity utilization rose to 77.6% from a downwardly revised October. Capacity grew 1.6% y/y.
"Ringing In the New Year with an Investment Bust?" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Production & Capacity | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | 0.3% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 0.3% | -0.6% | -3.4% |
| Capacity Utilization | 77.6% | 77.5% | 75.7% (11/03) | 74.8% | 75.6% | 77.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
