Global| Sep 14 2012Industrial Production Sags in August
Summary
Industrial production weak month, still up on quarter IP fell sharply in August ( the Fed had this number in its pocket at the FOMC meeting yesterday) led by a 3.7% drop in utilities output. But MFG alone also fell sharply, dropping [...]
Industrial production weak month, still up on quarter
IP fell sharply in August ( the Fed had this number in its pocket at the FOMC meeting yesterday) led by a 3.7% drop in utilities output. But MFG alone also fell sharply, dropping by 0.7% in the month. Inventories have been piling up. Still MFG is up at a 0.4% pace in Q2 with two months under our belt. Durable goods output is up at a 1.7% annual rate with non-durable goods output shrinking at a -0.3% annual rate.
Consumer goods lead the pull back with output down by 1.3% in August as both durable goods and non-durable goods output contracted. Business equipment output is off by 0.2% in August. Material output fell by 1.5% in August to complete the trifecta of weakness.
But in Q3, with two months of data in consumer goods output is falling at a -0.3% annual rate; business equipment output is rising at a 7.0% annual rate and materials output is up at a 0.4% annual rate.
| Industrial Production | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly % Chg | At Annual rates of Change | SAAR | |||||
| Month-to-Month % Chg | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | Year/Year | 2012-Q3 | |||
| Industrial Output | Aug-12 | Jul-12 | Jun-12 | % Chg | % Chg | % Chg | Pct Chg |
| All Prod & Materials | -1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | -2.1% | -0.6% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| All Products | -1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -1.7% | -0.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Final Products | -0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.4% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Utilities | -3.7% | 1.3% | -2.7% | -20.3% | 3.3% | -4.7% | -3.2% |
| Mining | -1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | -1.4% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Manufacturing | -0.7 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -1.1% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| Manufacturing Durables | -1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| Manufacturing Nondurables | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -3.0% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| Consumer Goods | -1.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% | -3.8% | -1.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| Durables | -2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | -7.7% | -3.9% | 5.5% | -3.8% |
| Automotive Prod | -4.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -15.0% | -8.8% | 6.4% | -9.9% |
| Ex Automotive Prod | -0.5% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% |
| Nondurables | -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -2.6% | -0.2% | -1.3% | 0.7% |
| Non Energy | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -1.7% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| Cons Energy | -2.1% | 0.2% | -0.6% | -10.1% | 4.9% | -5.4% | 4.2% |
| Business Equipment | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Transportation | -0.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 24.5% | 21.7% | 25.2% | 30.8% |
| Computers and Office Eqpt | -0.1% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -7.1% | -8.5% | -7.0% | -8.3% |
| Ex Tech and Transp | 0.1% | -0.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% |
| Materials | -1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -0.8% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Durables | -1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | -0.6% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Nondurables ex Energy | -0.2% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 0.9% | -4.0% | 1.1% | -0.4% |
| Energy | -2.7% | 1.3% | -0.6% | -8.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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