Global| Oct 15 2004Industrial Production Disappointing, Factory Output Down Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In September, industrial production rose just 0.2% following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% September increase. Production in the factory sector fell 0.3% (+5.3% y/y) last [...]
In September, industrial production rose just 0.2% following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% September increase.
Production in the factory sector fell 0.3% (+5.3% y/y) last month following the modest 0.2% August gain.
Output fell broadly; motor vehicles (-0.4% m/m, -1.2% y/y), furniture (-0.6% m/m, +2.9% y/y), petroleum (-3.3% m/m, -0.3% y/y), and textiles (-0.9% m/m, -1.7% y/y).
The high tech sector was relatively firm posting a 1.0% (20.8% y/y) gain, however the prior month's strength was revised down and the sector's growth has been ebbing.Factory output excluding motor vehicles & high tech fell 0.3% (+4.8% y/y), the third down month in the last four (August was revised to a 0.2% decline).
Total capacity utilization was stable at an upwardly revised 77.3%. Growth in capacity inched up to 1.4% y/y from 1.1% earlier this year.
| Production & Capacity | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | 0.2% | -0.2% | 4.7% | 0.3% | -0.6% | -3.4% |
| Capacity Utilization | 77.2% | 77.2% | 74.9%(9/03) | 74.8% | 75.6% | 77.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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