Global| Oct 14 2004Import Prices Up Just 0.2%
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices rose a modest 0.2% last month, just half the Consensus expectation. The prior month's surge of 1.7% was a bit lower than initially estimated due to a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in non-petroleum prices. In September, [...]
Import prices rose a modest 0.2% last month, just half the Consensus expectation. The prior month's surge of 1.7% was a bit lower than initially estimated due to a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in non-petroleum prices.
In September, non-petroleum import prices ticked up just 0.1%. Capital goods prices were unchanged (-1.4% y/y) for the sixth month this year. Excluding computers capital goods prices also were unchanged (+1.5% y/y). Non-auto consumer goods prices similarly were unchanged (+0.6% y/y) and have been flat or down in each of the last seven months due to lower durables prices.
Petroleum prices added 0.6% to the 8.3% August spike. The price of Brent crude oil in October has pushed above $50 per barrel versus the September average of $43.41.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 55% correlation between the level of the dollar and the y/y change in nonpetroleum import prices.
Export prices rose 0.4% due to a 1.6% (2.2% y/y) spike in agricultural prices. Nonagricultural prices rose a moderate 0.2% (4.3% y/y).
"Measuring the Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.2% | 1.4% | 7.8% | 2.9% | -2.5% | -3.5% |
| Petroleum | 0.6% | 8.3% | 48.7% | 21.0% | 3.0% | -17.2% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | -2.4% | -1.5% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.4% | -0.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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