Global| Apr 27 2009IFO Is Up In Month Diffusion, Indices Gain Too
Summary
The IFO index in German rose in April sparking some optimism that the index has made its financial cycle low. Sectors are improving across the board. MFG improved forma diffusion reading of -42.9 to -38. Wholesaling improved to -30.6 [...]
The IFO index in German rose in April sparking some optimism
that the index has made its financial cycle low.
Sectors are improving across the board. MFG improved forma
diffusion reading of -42.9 to -38. Wholesaling improved to -30.6 from
-31.7. Retailing is up to -26.5 from -28.3. Services stands at -7 after
posting a -10 in March. On construction slipped on the month to -24.3
from -22.1.
The IFO diffusion indices are still deeply into negative
territory. The overall index stands in the bottom 5 percentile of its
range. The combination of weakness across sectors is clearly unusual
since the overall IFO is at a lower position in its range than are ANY
of its components. The IFO’s signal joins that of the Zew index and of
the Markit MFG and Services sector indices that point to a turnaround
but continue to embrace very low current readings
| Summary of IFO Sector Diffusion readings: CLIMATE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLIMATE SUM | Current | Last Mo | Since Jan 1991* | |||||
| Apr-09 | Mar-09 | Average | Median | Max | Min | Range | % Range | |
| All Sectors | -33.1 | -36.2 | -8.8 | -9.3 | 17.5 | -36.2 | 53.7 | 5.8% |
| MFG | -38.0 | -42.9 | -1.3 | 0.4 | 27.5 | -42.9 | 70.4 | 7.0% |
| Construction | -24.3 | -22.1 | -28.9 | -30.3 | 0.7 | -50.1 | 50.8 | 50.8% |
| Wholesale | -30.6 | -31.7 | -14.2 | -16.0 | 24.0 | -38.9 | 62.9 | 13.2% |
| Retail | -26.5 | -28.3 | -15.4 | -15.0 | 21.5 | -40.2 | 61.7 | 22.2% |
| Services | -7.0 | -10.0 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 28.5 | -14.5 | 43.0 | 17.4% |
| * June 2001 for Services | ||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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