Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051006a.jpg" width="353">
Initial filings for unemployment insurance outpaced Consensus expectations for 365,000 claims and rose 21,000 to 390,000 last week. The prior week&#39;s decline was lessened to 66,000.
The Labor Department indicated that last week 74,000 initial claims were linked to Hurricanes Katrina &amp; Rita and totaled 363,000 during September.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 404,500 (17.2% y/y) from 388,750 during the prior four weeks.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 118,000 following a downwardly revised 129,000 increase during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.3% from 2.2% the week prior. The low in early September was 2.0%.
Hurricane Katrina and the Employment Situation report for September 2005 from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics can be found <a href="http://www.bls.gov/katrina/empsitbrief.htm"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/31/05</th>
<th scope="col">09/24/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>390</td>
<td>369</td>
<td>14.4%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Hurricane Related Claims (000, NSA)</td>
<td>74</td>
<td>70</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,905</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
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Initial filings for unemployment insurance outpaced Consensus expectations for 365,000 claims and rose 21,000 to 390,000 last week. The prior week's decline was lessened to 66,000. The Labor Department indicated that last week 74,000 [...]

Hurricanes Lifted Initial Jobless Insurance Claims

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The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in July after rising 0.3% in June and 0.1% in May. The July increase matched the forecast in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.7% y/y increase in the headline CPI in July held steady with June, but was increased from 2.3% in April. It remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.3% last month after a 0.2% June rise and a 0.1% uptick in May. The 3.1% y/y July rise compared to 2.8% from March through May, still well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices declined 1.1% (-1.6% y/y) last month after rising 0.9% in June. Gasoline prices weakened 2.2% (-9.5% y/y) after rising 1.0% in June. Fuel oil prices improved 1.8% (-2.9% y/y) after rising 1.3% in May. Natural gas prices fell 0.9% (+13.8% y/y) following a 0.5% gain, and electricity prices eased 0.1% (5.5% y/y) after rising 1.0% in June.

Food prices held steady in July (+2.9% y/y) following two straight 0.3% increases. Egg prices fell 3.9% (+16.4% y/y), off for the fourth straight month. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y) after increasing 0.8%, while dairy product prices gained 0.7% (1.5% y/y), after easing in four of the last five months. Cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.2% (+1.0% y/y) for the second straight month while fruit & vegetable prices held steady (0.2% y/y), following a 0.9% gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices declined 0.5% (+3.6% y/y) in July after rising 1.4% in June.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in July for the second straight month. The 1.2% y/y price gain is up from slight y/y declines in the first three months of this year. Prices of used cars and trucks rose 0.5% (+4.8% y/y) last month, after falling 0.7% in June, while new vehicle costs held steady (+0.4% y/y) after falling 0.3% for two consecutive months. Apparel prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.2% y/y) in July after rising 0.4%. Appliance prices fell 0.9% (-0.3% y/y), after strengthening 1.9%. Home furnishings prices increased 0.7% (2.4% y/y) after rising 1.0%. Recreation product costs rose 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) in July, after a 0.8% increase. Education & communication product costs declined 1.3% (-4.3% y/y) after holding steady in June. Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (NSA, 0.1% y/y) for the second straight month.

Services prices less energy strengthened 0.4% (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.3% in June. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y), the same as in June, as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) for the third straight month. The cost of lodging away from home declined 1.0% (-3.5% y/y), the fifth straight month of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.5% y/y), after two consecutive 0.2% increases. Transportation service prices jumped 0.8% (3.5% y/y) after gaining 0.2% and the cost of motor vehicle insurance edged up 0.1% (5.3% y/y) in July, the same as in June. Public transportation costs increased 3.0% (0.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% during June. The cost of medical services increased 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.6% rise, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.4% (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.2% in June. Education & communication services prices rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in June.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Decline in energy & stable food prices reduce overall strength.
- Core inflation picks up with tariff effects.
- Core goods prices strengthen but core services inflation steadies.

U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Eases in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 100.3 in July, the highest level since February, from 98.6 in June and 98.8 in May, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the third consecutive month that the index was above the 52-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December but up from 93.7 in July 2024 and a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Six of the 10 index components rose, two fell, and two were unchanged. Amid high uncertainty (with tariffs, inflation, and international conflicts), the NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 97 in July, the highest reading in five months, after a five-point decline to 89 in June. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October, was above its recent low of 86 in December and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the ninth straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve rose to 36% in July, the highest level since February, following a three-point decline to 22% in June; thus, having remained significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales slipped to a net 6% in July after a three-point decrease to 7% in June, posting the lowest of three successive positive readings. The latest figure was above its recent low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from -5% in June. The latest result was below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business rose to 16% in July, the highest reading since January, from 11% in June; the latest figure, while down from its most recent high of 20% in December, was up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays rebounded to 22% in July following a one-point dip to 21% in June; these numbers were down from their recent high of 28% in November and a high of 31% in October 2021. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions registered at -4% for the third consecutive month in July; this steady reading was slightly below its recent high of -2% in December but above a low of -11% in November 2023.

On the labor front, forty-eight percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in July, down from 50% in June. These numbers were below their recent high of 56% in August 2024, a high of 57% in September 2023, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 14% planned to increase employment in July, slightly up from 13% in June and posting the highest reading since February; it was above its recent low of 11% in March 2024 but below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 33% reported positions not able to be filled in July, down from 36% in June and registering the lowest reading since January 2021; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure held at -22% in July and June, a poor reading, following a five-point drop to -26% in May. These readings, while up from a low of -37% in August 2024, remained below a high of -18% in March 2023 and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level; thus, suggesting continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices fell to 24% in July, the lowest reading since January, after a four-point rise to 29% in June. These numbers were up from 22% in July 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices fell to a three-month-low 28% in July following a one-point increase to 32% in June; these figures were above 24% in July 2024 but below a high of 33% in March 2024 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation, while relatively high, eased in the July survey. A net 27% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, down from 33% reported in the June survey. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 17% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 19% reported in June and posting the lowest reading in three months; these numbers were below a high of 28% in November, a high of 30% in November 2023, and a high of 32% in October 2022.

The quality of labor was reported as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in July, up five points from 16% in June; it registered the highest reading since August 2024 and the biggest m/m increase since August 2022. Taxes were reported as the next most important problem, with 17% reported in July vs. 19% in June. Inflation continued to be a problem facing small businesses, as reported by 11% in July and June, the lowest reading since September 2021; the figure was well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in July vs. June) included poor sales (11% vs. 10%), the cost of labor (9% vs. 10%), government requirements (8% vs. 9%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), and competition from large businesses (6% vs. 7%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 1.7 pts. to 100.3.
- Uncertainty Index up 8 pts. to a 5-month-high 97.
- Expectations for economy up 14 pts. to 36%, the highest since Feb.
- Plans to expand business up 5 pts. to 16%, the highest since Jan.
- Expected real sales down 1 pt. to 6%, still positive for the third straight month.
- Percent of firms raising avg. selling prices down 5 pts. to a 6-month-low 24%.
- Quality of labor (21%), taxes (17%), and inflation (11%) are the top three business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises in July; Highest Level Since February

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades, on average, dipped to $3.24 per gallon (-8.1% y/y) last week after rising to $3.27 one week earlier. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.75 per gallon (+1.3% y/y) in the week of August 11 after easing to $3.80 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $64.71 per barrel (-14.6% y/y) in the week ended August 8 from $68.50 in the prior week. The drop left prices at the lowest level since the first week of June. Prices, nonetheless, remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.96 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $68.17 per barrel (-13.5% y/y) in the week of August 8, after rising to $70.09 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $67.36 per gallon yesterday.

Natural gas prices slipped to an average $2.99/mmbtu (+59.0% y/y) in the week ended August 8, after falling to an average $3.03/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.05 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 2.2% y/y in the four weeks ending August 1, following a 3.0% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending August 1, after a 1.5% y/y increase in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 2.9% y/y in the four weeks ending August 1, after a 1.7% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 0.9% y/y in the week ending August 1 after a 2.1% y/y in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 25.8% y/y in the week of August 1, after a 22.5% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7% y/y in the week of August, after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories held at 25.5 days in the week of August 1. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil eased to 25.0 days in the week of August 1 from 25.2 days in the prior week and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices weaken.
- Crude oil prices decline sharply.
- Natural gas prices ease.


U.S. Energy Prices Fall in Latest Week

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The **Industrial Materials Price Index** from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 0.5% (+2.5% y/y) during the latest four-week period, after rising 0.7% in the prior four weeks. It was the first decline since early-May and accompanied a sideways movement in factory sector production.

**Crude Oil & Benzene** group prices moved 1.6% lower (-11.2% y/y) in the latest four week period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 3.3% to $65.39 per barrel and remained 11.9% lower y/y. It had fallen to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 1.9% (-30.8% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index eased 0.3% (+3.4% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Prices in the **Metals** group, prices fell 1.0% (+6.2% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Lead prices declined 4.7% (+0.4% y/y) while copper scrap prices weakened 3.0% (+9.9% y/y). Aluminum prices slipped 0.3% in four weeks (+17.3% y/y), and tin prices fell 0.7% (+12.5% y/y). Working higher, the cost of zinc rose 2.2% (7.8% y/y), and steel scrap costs gained 1.3% (-7.7% y/y) over four weeks.

**Miscellaneous** group prices were little changed (+6.6% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of natural rubber fell 7.4% (-11.4% y/y) in four weeks, but framing lumber prices gained 5.8% (33.6% y/y). Tallow costs (used in the soap industry) rose 2.4% (32.5% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the **Textile** group edged 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs improved 3.6% in four weeks (3.1% y/y), but cotton prices fell 1.6% (+5.9% y/y) in that same period.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Decline is first in three months.
- Crude oil and metals prices move lower.
- Lumber prices improve while textile costs steady.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Retreat in Latest Four Weeks