Global| Sep 23 2004Hurricanes Lifted Claims for Jobless Insurance
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 14,000 last week to 350,000 after an upwardly revised 18,000 gain the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims. The US Labor Department indicated that last week's [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 14,000 last week to 350,000 after an upwardly revised 18,000 gain the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims.
The US Labor Department indicated that last week's claims number primarily reflected hurricanes Charley & Frances. Hurricane Ivan has yet to be reflected in the claims figures.
The latest figure is for the September survey period for nonfarm payrolls and initial claims were 17,000 (5.1%) higher than in the August period.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims was stable at 341,000 (-15.5% y/y). During the last ten years there has been an 81% (negative) correlation between the monthly average of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 5,000 following a deepened 9,000 decline the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3%, where it has hovered since the end of April.
"Labor's Share" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/18/04 | 09/11/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 350 | 336 | -9.6% | 399 | 403 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,883 | -19.2% | 3,516 | 3,564 | 2974 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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