Global| Apr 29 2008Household Confidence in Near Free Fall in France
Summary
The INSEE household confidence reading is at its lowest mark since 1990. Living standards in the past and next 12-months are assessed as being in the bottom several percentage points of their range for the period. The same is true of [...]
The INSEE household confidence reading is at its lowest mark since 1990. Living standards in the past and next 12-months are assessed as being in the bottom several percentage points of their range for the period. The same is true of the assessment of their financial situation by households.
Unemployment expectations remain subdued however in the lower
35% of their range and they are not on a clear rising trend either.
Price developments are, however, high and rising reading in the 96th
percentile of their range. The spending environment is assessed as
beginning in the bottom quarter of its range since 1990. On balance
French consumers are under pressure and showing some of the same
conditions we see in Italy and in the UK. The last German assessment by
consumers was up. So Germany has some very different dynamics in play
despite the fact its industrial indicators are a tattered its consumers
have gotten a second wind. The Euro Area is generally showing the
impact from financial turmoil and high commodity prices along with a
too-strong currency.
| INSEE Household Monthly Survey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Jan 1990 | ||||||
| Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | Percentile | Rank | |
| Household Confidence | -37 | -36 | -35 | -35 | 0.0 | 215 |
| Living Standards | ||||||
| Past 12-Mos | -69 | -71 | -68 | -65 | 2.2 | 214 |
| Next 12-Mos | -43 | -40 | -42 | -44 | 1.7 | 214 |
| Unemployment: Next 12 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 36.4 | 176 |
| Price Developments | ||||||
| Past 12-Mos | 56 | 60 | 43 | 39 | 96.6 | 2 |
| Next 12-Mos | -36 | -41 | -25 | -12 | 26.4 | 108 |
| Savings | ||||||
| Favorable to Save | 24 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 55.6 | 101 |
| Ability to Save Next 12 Mos | -13 | -16 | -13 | -12 | 34.5 | 161 |
| Spending | ||||||
| Favorable for major purchase | -28 | -28 | -26 | -25 | 24.1 | 198 |
| Financial Situation | ||||||
| Current | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 42.9 | 104 |
| Past 12-Mos | -29 | -30 | -27 | -25 | 4.0 | 214 |
| Next 12-Mos | -16 | -14 | -14 | -14 | 0.0 | 214 |
| Number of observations in the period | 220 | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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