Global| Nov 30 2006Home Price Appreciation Slowest in Three Years
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) home prices in the U.S. rose last quarter but the 0.9% gain was the slowest since 1998 and the y/y increase of 7.7% was the worst since 2003. Price declines were [...]
According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) home prices in the U.S. rose last quarter but the 0.9% gain was the slowest since 1998 and the y/y increase of 7.7% was the worst since 2003.
Price declines were scattered throughout the country. Job cutbacks in the auto industry helped lower prices in Michigan for the second consecutive quarter and in New York a 0.3% decline dropped the y/y rate of home price appreciation to 6.5%, the worst since 1999. Prices also fell q/q in Massachusetts (for the second quarter, +1.1% y/y), Rhode Island (+4.6% y/y) and New Hampshire (+3.7% y/y).
Home price appreciation in the District of Columbia continued reasonably firm last quarter at 1.0% but the still healthy y/y gain of 11.3% was down from last year's peak of 25.2%. Home prices in Idaho also turned in a strong showing with a 3.0% (17.5% y/y) increase. Notable for strength also were prices in Florida which rose 1.2% (15.1% y/y) though that is down from a 25.9% gain during all of last year.
The House Price Indices in this report are weighted indexes based on repeat sales or refinancings using data provided by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac .
The latest report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) can be found here.
| House Price Index (OFHEO) | 3Q '06 | 2Q '06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 0.9% | 1.3% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 6.9% |
| California | 0.6% | 1.5% | 10.2% | 23.4% | 22.3% | 12.3% |
| New Jersey | 0.8% | 1.8% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| New York | -0.3% | 1.0% | 6.5% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 10.4% |
| Michigan | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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