Global| Sep 30 2004Help-Wanted Advertising Remained Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board remained at 37 in August after the decline in July to the lowest level of the year. During the last ten years there has been a 91% correlation between the [...]
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board remained at 37 in August after the decline in July to the lowest level of the year.
During the last ten years there has been a 91% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls. The stall in help wanted indicates that most, if not all, of the y/y improvement in non-farm payroll growth has been due to fewer job losses, not improved hiring.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume rose to 49% from a depressed 41% in July.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
"Why Did the Average Duration of Unemployment Become So Much Longer?" from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Conference Board | Aug | July | Aug '03 |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Help Wanted Index | 37 | 37 | 37 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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