Global| Jan 08 2009Germany Posts Terrible Orders
Summary
German orders are plunging dropping by 6% in November, 6.3% in October and by 8.3% in October. That is quite a string of losing numbers. Order are falling at about a 50% annual rate in the fourth quarter an that is true of orders both [...]
German orders are plunging dropping by 6% in November, 6.3% in
October and by 8.3% in October. That is quite a string of losing
numbers. Order are falling at about a 50% annual rate in the fourth
quarter an that is true of orders both domestic and foreign sourced as
well.
Sales have been weak in Germany in the quarter as well as
consumer durables sales are dropping at a 23% annual rate. Car sales
are weak globally. But even capital goods sales are dropping at a 15%
annual rate in Q4 and sales of intermediate goods are down at a 23%
annual rate, all in real terms.
German orders are now so weak that the are off by 24% Yr/Yr.
It’s real pain.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Nov-08 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | YrAgo | QTR-2-Date | |
| Total Orders | -6.0% | -6.3% | -8.3% | -57.6% | -34.9% | -24.0% | 13.0% | -49.7% |
| Foreign Orders | -4.4% | -6.3% | -11.6% | -60.8% | -37.4% | -26.9% | 17.4% | -53.0% |
| Domestic Orders | -7.6% | -6.4% | -4.7% | -53.8% | -32.1% | -20.7% | 8.4% | -45.9% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | -4.5% | -0.1% | -4.3% | -30.4% | -16.6% | -7.0% | 4.3% | -16.8% |
| Consumer | -2.2% | -0.1% | -1.2% | -13.0% | -6.7% | -5.3% | 1.2% | -6.1% |
| Consumer Durables | -4.5% | -1.1% | -6.2% | -38.1% | -21.3% | -9.7% | -0.5% | -22.9% |
| Consumer Nondurables | -1.7% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -7.1% | -3.6% | -4.5% | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| Capital Goods | -5.2% | 1.0% | -5.4% | -32.6% | -17.9% | -6.6% | 5.8% | -15.5% |
| Intermediate Goods | -5.0% | -1.3% | -4.5% | -35.8% | -19.9% | -8.7% | 4.5% | -23.6% |
| All MFG-Sales | -4.2% | 0.0% | -4.2% | -29.1% | -15.8% | -6.6% | 3.7% | -15.8% |
by Robert Brusca January 8, 2009
German orders are plunging dropping by 6% in November, 6.3% in
October and by 8.3% in October. That is quite a string of losing
numbers. Order are falling at about a 50% annual rate in the fourth
quarter an that is true of orders both domestic and foreign sourced as
well.
Sales have been weak in Germany in the quarter as well as
consumer durables sales are dropping at a 23% annual rate. Car sales
are weak globally. But even capital goods sales are dropping at a 15%
annual rate in Q4 and sales of intermediate goods are down at a 23%
annual rate, all in real terms.
German orders are now so weak that the are off by 24% Yr/Yr.
It’s real pain.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Nov-08 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | YrAgo | QTR-2-Date | |
| Total Orders | -6.0% | -6.3% | -8.3% | -57.6% | -34.9% | -24.0% | 13.0% | -49.7% |
| Foreign Orders | -4.4% | -6.3% | -11.6% | -60.8% | -37.4% | -26.9% | 17.4% | -53.0% |
| Domestic Orders | -7.6% | -6.4% | -4.7% | -53.8% | -32.1% | -20.7% | 8.4% | -45.9% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | -4.5% | -0.1% | -4.3% | -30.4% | -16.6% | -7.0% | 4.3% | -16.8% |
| Consumer | -2.2% | -0.1% | -1.2% | -13.0% | -6.7% | -5.3% | 1.2% | -6.1% |
| Consumer Durables | -4.5% | -1.1% | -6.2% | -38.1% | -21.3% | -9.7% | -0.5% | -22.9% |
| Consumer Nondurables | -1.7% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -7.1% | -3.6% | -4.5% | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| Capital Goods | -5.2% | 1.0% | -5.4% | -32.6% | -17.9% | -6.6% | 5.8% | -15.5% |
| Intermediate Goods | -5.0% | -1.3% | -4.5% | -35.8% | -19.9% | -8.7% | 4.5% | -23.6% |
| All MFG-Sales | -4.2% | 0.0% | -4.2% | -29.1% | -15.8% | -6.6% | 3.7% | -15.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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