Global| Aug 06 2003Germany Factory Orders, Employment Stabilize After Declines
Summary
Two important measures of economic activity in Germany showed improvement in their latest reports. Factory orders rose 2.1% in June, reversing Mays 2.6% decline. Weakness in the domestic economy persists as local orders continued to [...]
Two important measures of economic activity in Germany showed improvement in their latest reports.
Factory orders rose 2.1% in June, reversing May’s 2.6% decline. Weakness in the domestic economy persists as local orders continued to decline, but foreign orders, particularly for capital goods, rose markedly in June. All these orders are too erratic to make much of one month’s gain, but the year-on-year pattern at least suggests some stabilization; that rate of decline has held at -3.5 for three straight months. That’s still not healthy, but the situation appears to have stopped worsening.
| 2000=100 (% Change) | June 2003 | May 2003 | June 2003 | Dec/Dec|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (M/M) | (M/M) | (Y/Y) | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
| Total Factory Orders | 2.1 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -9.8 | 9.0 |
| Domestic | -0.9 | -0.2 | -4.3 | 0.8 | -8.5 | 2.3 |
| Foreign | 5.5 | -5.4 | -2.6 | 0.1 | -11.6 | 17.8 |
Similarly, employment in Germany appears to have stopped falling, although no recovery appears to be under way yet. In May (latest available), the number of people employed edged down just 34,000, the smallest monthly decrease since July 2002. The average decline in the most recent 12 months has been 55,000. Data on unemployment, published on a more current schedule, show stability in the unemployment rate at 10.6% for the three months to July after a recent peak of 10.7% in April. The number of people unemployed was 4.41 million in July, down almost 50,000 from the April high. Labor market conditions appear to be staging a gradual recovery.
| Seasonally Adjusted | July 2003 | June 2003 | May 2003 | April 2003 | Monthly Average||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2001 | |||||
| Employment (000s) | N.A. | N.A. | -34 | -38 | -42 | -6 |
| Unemployed (000s) | 4,408 | 4,401 | 4,437 | 4,449 | 4,073 | 3,860 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 9.4 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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