Global| May 02 2008German Retail Sales Show Some Life in Q1
Summary
The original weakness in German ex-auto retail sales in February had already been revised up, leaving February in a small decline. Now March sales are flat. The strength in the quarter stems from the surge back in January. Real retail [...]
The original weakness in German ex-auto retail sales in
February had already been revised up, leaving February in a small
decline. Now March sales are flat. The strength in the quarter stems
from the surge back in January. Real retail sales are up at a 4.9%
annual rate in the quarter. Nominal sales are up by an eye popping
8.1%. But all of the quarter’s gains stem from a surge in sales in
January – a surge that still seems in the process of being unwound.
While recent German surveys of consumer sentiment have been upbeat,
surveys of retailers have not. It appears that real retail sales
ex-autos are in a position to boost Q1 GDP but it does not seem that
this is any sort of a watershed event.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | QTR Saar |
| Retail excl Auto | 0.0% | -0.2% | 2.3% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 8.1% |
| Food Beverage & Tobacco | 1.1% | -0.8% | 3.1% | 14.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| Clothing footwear | -8.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | -11.6% | -20.6% | -5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail excl Auto | -0.1% | -0.7% | 1.9% | 4.5% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -0.7% | 4.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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