Global| Dec 01 2009German Retail Sales Rise But Amass No Momentum
Summary
German retail sales rose in October, reversing a drop in September, but sales continue to show negative momentum. The sequential nominal rates of growth from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months all are clustered around a minus 3% growth [...]
German retail sales rose in October, reversing a drop in September, but sales continue to show negative momentum. The sequential nominal rates of growth from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months all are clustered around a minus 3% growth rate. For real retail sales the sequential growth rates show a move to more weakness despite the bump up in sales in October. Real retail sales sequential growth rates are getting to be more severe negative numbers.
Only clothing and footwear sales are showing any kind of strength. Footwear and clothing sales are now up Yr/Yr along with car registrations. Government programs have skewed spending toward car purchases by offering incentives. Clothing and footwear are just beginning to pick up. Still there is nothing upbeat about the German consumer in this report. The rise in spending in October sure beats a drop. But trends are not reversed or even blunted by this rise after two months of steep drops.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | QTR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Aug-09 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | Saar |
| Retaill Ex auto | 0.6% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -3.2% | -3.3% | -2.5% | 2.0% | -0.2% |
| MV and Parts | 0.5% | -0.2% | -1.5% | -4.8% | -3.0% | -1.7% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| Food Bev & Tobacco | -1.6% | -3.4% | 3.7% | -6.0% | -7.0% | -5.0% | 1.4% | -15.4% |
| Clothing footwear | 8.5% | 2.9% | -7.4% | 14.5% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 56.6% |
| Car Registrations (units) | -0.1% | -2.7% | -9.5% | -40.1% | -31.4% | 24.0% | -8.3% | 0.0% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | 0.5% | -0.2% | -1.5% | -4.8% | -3.0% | -1.7% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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