Global| Aug 06 2009German Orders Surge Again
Summary
German new orders rose by 4.5% in June after rising by 4.4% in May. Orders are up and at a 42% annual rate over three-months and STILL they stand lower by 23.7% than they did one year ago. In the newly completed second quarter, orders [...]
German new orders rose by 4.5% in June after rising by 4.4% in
May. Orders are up and at a 42% annual rate over three-months and STILL
they stand lower by 23.7% than they did one year ago. In the newly
completed second quarter, orders are up at a 26.8% annual rate. While
real sector sales in mining and MFG are up at a 3.4% pace in the
quarter. Germany is beginning to turn the corner, despite ongoing
weakness in retail sales.
German domestic orders barely nudged higher rising by nearly
rounding error (0.2%) in June. Foreign orders spurted by 8.3% putting
in their second strong month in a row. Exports remain the lifeblood of
the German economy. The report that Hungary’s industrial output rose
for the second month in a row is good news for Germany, suggesting that
eastern European export markets are among those that are reviving.
In June German real sector sales for consumer goods rose by
0.2% as consumer durables plunged by 3.7%. Capital goods real sales
rose by 1.2% after spurting by 9.2% in May. Intermediates goods sales
rose by 2.8%. German real sector sales were up across the abroad in the
quarter as well with the exception of consumer durables, where sales
fell in the quarter at a hefty -8.4% annual rate.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Jun-09 | May-09 | Apr-09 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | YrAgo | QTR-2-Date | |
| Total Orders | 4.5% | 4.4% | 0.1% | 42.6% | 19.4% | -23.7% | -8.0% | 26.8% |
| Foreign | 8.3% | 4.9% | -0.9% | 61.2% | 27.0% | -24.2% | -11.4% | 40.0% |
| Domestic | 0.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 23.8% | 11.3% | -23.1% | -3.6% | 13.5% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | 1.4% | 4.6% | -2.0% | 16.6% | 8.0% | -17.4% | 0.9% | 3.4% |
| Consumer | 0.2% | -2.2% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 3.9% | -6.8% | -3.9% | 4.7% |
| Consumer Durables | -3.7% | 6.1% | -1.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | -21.8% | -1.6% | -8.4% |
| Consumer Nondurables | 0.6% | -3.2% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 3.8% | -4.1% | -4.2% | 6.7% |
| Capital Goods | 1.2% | 9.2% | -7.3% | 10.1% | 4.9% | -22.3% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Intermediate Goods | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 32.0% | 14.9% | -18.2% | 1.2% | 9.7% |
| All MFG-Sales | 1.5% | 4.4% | -2.0% | 16.6% | 8.0% | -17.6% | 0.8% | 3.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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