Louise Curley

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<p><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031007c.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>Total manufacturing orders in Germany increased 0.5% in August. The composition of orders reflects an improved outlook for exports as export orders rose 2.3% and a continued subdued outlook for the domestic economy as domestic orders declined 1.1%.</p>
<p>Increased global demand has apparently offset the dampening effects of the rising Euro on the demand for German exports since exports have continued to show strength.</p>
<p>While orders for domestic goods are not encouraging, there was an increase in German retail sales in August that may be a sign that consumer, if not industry, demand may at last be improving.</p>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b>&nbsp;</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Aug 03</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> July 03</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> Aug 02</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> July 02</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> M/M %</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> Y/Y %</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> 2002</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> 2001</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b> 2000</b></th>
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<td class="firstcol">New orders (2000=100)</td>
<td>97.8</td>
<td>97.3</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>97.8</td>
<td>0.51</td>
<td>-1.11</td>
<td>98.2</td>
<td>98.3</td>
<td>100.0</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>92.5</td>
<td>93.6</td>
<td>94.8</td>
<td>94.6</td>
<td>-1.10</td>
<td>-2.43</td>
<td>94.6</td>
<td>97.6</td>
<td>100.0</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign</td>
<td>104.4</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>103.9</td>
<td>101.9</td>
<td>2.35</td>
<td>0.48</td>
<td>102.8</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>100.0</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales (2000=100)</td>
<td>102.4</td>
<td>100.8</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>101.8</td>
<td>1.59</td>
<td>0.31</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>102.1</td>
<td>100.0</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Export of goods (Bil.Euros)</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>55.06</td>
<td>53.63#</td>
<td>52.26</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>5.36</td>
<td>54.28*</td>
<td>53.43*</td>
<td>49.72*</td>
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Total manufacturing orders in Germany increased 0.5% in August. The composition of orders reflects an improved outlook for exports as export orders rose 2.3% and a continued subdued outlook for the domestic economy as domestic orders [...]

German Manufacturing Orders Increase

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Tom Moeller

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence declined 5.5% (-4.9% y/y) during June to 93.0 after rising a little-revised 14.8% in May to 98.4. The index fell an unrevised 8.7% in April to 85.7. A June reading of 99.8 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index remained 17.6% below its November peak.

The Expectations Index declined 6.3% this month (-5.2% y/y) after rising 32.9% in May, revised from 31.4%, and falling an unrevised 17.2% in April. The Present Situation index declined 4.7% (-4.6% y/y) after rising 3.4% in in May, revised from 3.7% after declining an unrevised 2.5% in April.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” fell to 19.0% after jumping to 21.4% in May. The index hit a high of 22.0% in October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” increased to 15.3% after falling to 13.7% in May. The appraisal of labor market conditions weakened as 29.2% described it as “jobs plentiful” versus 31.1% in May. Jobs were viewed as “hard to get” by 18.1% of respondents this month, down from 18.4% in May. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 11.1% compared to 12.7% in May and 13.7% in April. This measure remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions deteriorated this month as a lessened 16.7% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, after rising to 19.9% in May, while 24.0% expect them to worsen, after falling to 25.4% in May. On employment, a lessened 15.4% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months versus 18.6% in May. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months fell to 25.9% after falling sharply to 26.2% in May. A lessened 16.3% of respondents expect income to increase in six months, down from 18.4%% in May. That remained down from a high of 20.7% in November and compares to 12.4% who expect income to decrease, down from 13.5% in May.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months declined to 6.0% in June after falling to 6.4% in May. This remains up from a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by an increased 57.0% of respondents, and that remained up from a 45.5% November 2024 low. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months rose to 45.6%, up from 44.7% in May and the most in four months, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices fell to 33.5% after declining to 37.2% in May.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell to 5.9% after surging to 6.7% in April. Plans to purchase an automobile held steady at 11.8% this month after falling from 10.6% in April.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

**Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress** by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20250624a.htm).

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- Decline reverses part of May increase
- Both expectations and present situation readings drop.
- Inflation expectations fall to three-month low.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines in June; Inflation Expectations Fall

Michael J. Moran

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**The Current Account**  The deficit in the U.S. current account widened dramatically in the first quarter, surging $138.2 billion or 44.3%. While the magnitude of the change was striking, it was not surprising, as monthly statistics on imports and exports had shown marked deterioration in the trade deficit. The trade slippage, in turn, was driven by a surge in imports to front-run the likely imposition of tariffs. Import and export flows in April showed a slowdown in such efforts, raising the prospect of a sharp narrowing in the current account deficit in Q2.

While international trade in goods and services is the largest component of the current account, income flows are included as well. Such flows had an insignificant influence in Q1, showing a net improvement of $1.4 billion, a pittance compared with the deterioration in trade. The two components of income flows (primary and secondary) moved in opposite directions in Q1, with primary income slipping and secondary income posting an unusually large change that more than offset the softness in primary income.

The quarterly change in primary income was not especially large ($9.2 billion), but the notable story in this component has been the shift in the past few years. In the span from 2007 to 2020, primary income was solidly in the plus column, often totaling more than $50 billion per quarter (not annualized). However, flows started to slow in 2020, and they have been in negative territory in five of the past six quarters. The most notable shift has occurred in investment income, which historically has involved net inflows despite a net negative investment position (U.S. residents held higher-returning assets). However, net investment income has been in negative territory in four of the past five quarters.

Primary income also includes employee compensation, which historically has generated net negative flows for the United States (more foreign workers in the U.S. than U.S. workers abroad). The degree of net outflow has deepened in recent years, contributing to the slowing trend in primary income. Recent quarterly changes have generally been small, although the changes usually involve net outflows.

Secondary income is the smallest component of the current account, consisting of so-called current transfers, which are cash payments without the receipt of an offsetting good, service, or asset. Examples of such transfers include remittances of migrants to their home country, government grants, and fines and penalties. Secondary income for the U.S. is usually negative, reflecting large remittances of migrants. However, the fourth quarter showed a notable net inflow. The positive flow reflected the receipt of fines and penalties and reduced outflow of government payments for international cooperation (perhaps a cut in aid to U.S.A.I.D or other changes prompted by DOGE).

**The Capital Account**  The capital account tracks the net flow of so-called capital transfers (not to be confused with current transfers in the secondary income component of the current account). Capital transfers involve changes in the ownership of assets without an offsetting receipt of another asset (or reduction in liability) with economic value. The most notable examples of capital transfers are debt forgiveness, insurance payments for catastrophic events, and investment grants.

The capital account for the U.S. usually involves negative flows, but both the fourth quarter of last year and the first and first quarter of this year saw positive flows. The background story, however, was not favorable, as the inflows primarily represented insurance payments from foreign companies to cover catastrophic events – hurricane Milton in 2024-Q4 and California wildfires this year.

**Offsetting Financial Flows**  In the system of international accounts, imbalances in the current and capital accounts will be offset by some type of financial flow. A combined deficit in the current and capital account will be matched by some combination of a decrease in assets or an increase in liabilities; Surpluses in the current and capital accounts will generate an increase in assets or a decrease in liabilities. (The accounts also have a statistical discrepancy to close gaps generated by different source data or reporting errors.)

The accounts track five broad areas of financial flows: direct investment, portfolio investment, reserve assets, financial derivatives, and other investments (such as currencies, deposits, Loans, and trade credit). All move erratically and none has traced a distinct trend in the past several years. Shifts in one quarter can be (and often are) reversed shortly down the road.

While a high degree of volatility inhabits the financial accounts, the following identity holds every quarter:
Current account + capital account + statistical discrepancy
=  Increase in assets – increase in liabilities + net derivatives

**Benchmark Revisions**  Today’ s report included benchmark revisions that adjusted underlying data back to 2022 and seasonal factors back to 2018. The cumulative current account deficit widened by $55.3 billion over the prior three years (-1.8%). The trade deficit narrowed by $46.0 billion (1.7%), but this improvement was more than offset by deterioration in income flows. Both primary and secondary income contributed to the negative adjustment, with primary slipping by 25.1% and secondary easing by 10.0%.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Pronounced Slippage in International Trade.
- Negligible shift in Income Flows.
- Some Offset in the Capital Account.

International Transactions 2025-Q1

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. house prices fell 0.4% m/m in April after holding steady in both March (-0.1% initially) and February (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The April HPI at 434.93 was the lowest index level since November but 12.7% above a low of 385.83 in August 2022. The April m/m reading was the first monthly fall since -0.4% m/m in August 2022. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 3.0% in April, the lowest since May 2023, from 3.9% in March; thus, having remained lower than 6.6% in April 2024 and well below a high of 18.7% in February 2022.

House prices dropped m/m in April (vs. March) in five of the nine census divisions. These included South Atlantic (-1.3% vs. 0.4%), West South Central (-1.3% vs. 0.1%), Mountain (-1.0% vs. -0.8%), Pacific (-0.7% vs. -0.5%), and New England (-0.3% vs. -0.03%). To the upside, house prices rose m/m in four census divisions in April (vs. March): Middle Atlantic (1.2% vs. 0.2%), East South Central (0.9% vs. 0.9%), East North Central (0.1% vs. -0.01%), and West North Central (0.1% vs. -0.2%).

Year-on-year house prices continued to gain in April. However, the pace of increase decelerated y/y in April (vs. March) in seven of the nine census divisions. These were Pacific (0.5% vs. 1.7%), West South Central (0.7% vs. 2.2%), Mountain (1.4% vs. 2.6%), South Atlantic (1.6% vs. 3.4%), West North Central (3.3% vs. 4.1%), New England (5.5% vs. 6.6%), and East North Central (5.7% vs. 5.9%). Meanwhile, house price growth accelerated y/y in April (vs. March) in the Middle Atlantic region (7.4% vs. 6.2%). House price growth in the East South Central region held steady at 4.4% y/y.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- Apr. FHFA HPI -0.4% m/m (+3.0% y/y, lowest since May ’23); 0.0% m/m (+3.9% y/y) in Mar.
- House prices down m/m in five of nine census divisions but up in Middle Atlantic, East South Central, East North Central, and West North Central.
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.4%) and the lowest rate in Pacific (0.5%).

U.S. FHFA House Prices Drop in April After Holding Steady

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades rose to an average $3.34 per gallon (-6.2% y/y) last week after rising to $3.27 in the prior week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel increased to $3.78 per gallon (0.2% y/y) in the week of June 23 from $3.57 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil strengthened to $74.17 per barrel (-8.7% y/y) in the week ended June 20 with building tensions in the Middle East. The gain followed a rise in the prior week to $67.89 per barrel. Prices were at the highest level since the fourth week of January, up from a low $59.04 low in the second week of May. 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $68.51 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil of $78.21 per barrel (-8.0% y/y) in the week of June 20 compared to $71.05 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $74.34 per barrel.

Natural gas prices increased last week to an average $3.08 per mmbtu (26.2% y/y) in the week ended June 20, after holding steady at $2.84/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.50 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand fell 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending June 13 following a 2.5% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ending June 13 after a 0.5% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries fell 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending June 13 after a 1.1% y/y weakening in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 0.5% y/y in the week ending June13 after a 1.6% y/y decline in the week ending June 6. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 1.9% y/y in the week of June 13, after a19.3% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories slipped 0.6% y/y in the week of June 13 after a 0.5% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 25.4 days in the week of June 13 from 25.9 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil fell to 25.0 days in the week of June 13 from 25.8 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices rise to 11-week high.
- Crude oil prices surge.
- Natural gas prices move up.

U.S. Energy Prices Increase in Latest Week