Global| Apr 09 2009German IP Drops Sharply Again
Summary
We saw the weakness in German orders so it is not surprising that output is having the same experience in Germany . Industrial output fell by a large 2.9% in January on the heels of a dizzying 6.1% drop in January. Output is declining [...]
We saw the weakness in German orders so it is not surprising
that output is having the same experience in Germany . Industrial
output fell by a large 2.9% in January on the heels of a dizzying 6.1%
drop in January. Output is declining at an even faster rate over
three-months than over six months and over six months the annual rate
pace of decline is -35%, over three months it is -40.8%. The
deceleration in output is being led by the important capital goods
sector. The rate of decline in consumer goods output and in
intermediate goods is still large but those two sectors have held the
line in February with the same 3-month growth rate as for six months.
Capital goods are plunging at a 60% rate up sharply from a -40% pace
over six months. This is a sector that is important to German exporters
and German foreign-sourced orders have been falling sharply. Output in
the construction sector managed a rise in Feb after a super-plunge in
January; it has been volatile. Its 3-monht growth rate is nearly
neutral (-0.8% saar). Manufacturing
IP is down even more sharply over three months at -47% compared to -39%
over six months. Orders weakness suggests there is more of this to come.
| Total German IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar exept m/m | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter- to-Date |
| IP total | -2.9% | -6.1% | -3.9% | -40.8% | -35.0% | -20.3% | -43.1% |
| Consumer | -3.6% | -0.6% | 1.4% | -11.0% | -12.9% | -7.7% | -10.8% |
| Capital | -4.5% | -14.1% | -3.2% | -60.1% | -46.4% | -27.6% | -62.8% |
| Intermed | -1.9% | -2.1% | -9.1% | -41.9% | -40.6% | -22.8% | -43.2% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Construction | 1.9% | -7.5% | 5.9% | -0.8% | -6.0% | -14.6% | -13.3% |
| MFG IP | -3.4% | -7.3% | -4.8% | -47.3% | -39.3% | -22.5% | -49.1% |
| MFG Orders | -3.5% | -6.7% | -7.3% | -51.5% | -55.6% | -36.3% | -54.5% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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