Global| Jan 11 2010French Industrial Output Recovers Lead By A Rebound In Investment Goods
Summary
French IP is on the mend. Yr/Yr its decline has been reduced to under a 5% drop, at -3.8%. Over six months IP is expanding at a growth rate of 6.1%. Output of consumer durable goods is holding back the recovery although output of [...]
French IP is on the mend. Yr/Yr its decline has been reduced to under a 5% drop, at -3.8%. Over six months IP is expanding at a growth rate of 6.1%. Output of consumer durable goods is holding back the recovery although output of consumer durables rose in November. Auto output surged in November.
France is seeing output rise in Q4 at a very modest annual rate pace of 0.5%. Consumer durables output is falling at a 7% annual rate in Q4. Consumer nondurables and capital goods output are creeping ahead in the new quarter. Intermediate goods output is rising at a strong 6.3%.
The industrial sector globally is making a strong recovery from a disastrous drop in the recession. France’s recovery is about as advanced as that in any major industrial country. Still it has lost some momentum. This recovery continues to go in fits and starts. France’s IP advance in November is heartening but it does not turn up the speed of the expansion in any clear way.
| French IP Excluding
Construction |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Nov-09 | Oct-09 | Sep-09 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter -to-date |
| IP total | 1.1% | -0.6% | -1.2% | -2.6% | 6.1% | -3.8% | 0.5% |
| Consumer Dur | 1.2% | -1.5% | -3.1% | -12.9% | -9.1% | -11.7% | -7.0% |
| Consumer Ndur | 0.4% | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.1% | 3.1% | -2.2% | 0.8% |
| Capital | 2.4% | -0.8% | -3.1% | -6.0% | 12.4% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| Intermed | 2.1% | 0.1% | -1.6% | 2.4% | 13.9% | -3.7% | 6.3% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Auto | 11.1% | -5.7% | -17.0% | -42.9% | 75.5% | 18.6% | -18.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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