Global| Apr 28 2014Fed Bank of Dallas Company Outlook Survey is the Most Optimistic Since 2010
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its Company Outlook Index gained to 23.4 (SA) this month from 9.1 during March. It was the highest level since April 2010. The Production reading led the advance to 24.7, the highest [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its Company Outlook Index gained to 23.4 (SA) this month from 9.1 during March. It was the highest level since April 2010. The Production reading led the advance to 24.7, the highest level since 2011. The New Orders index also was firm with a rise to 21.3, the highest level since 2010. The employment figure gained strongly to the highest level since early-2012 but the prices paid index was roughly stable near its late-2012 level.
The Company Outlook Index, Six Months Ahead slipped marginally to 26.9 from 27.4, but it sustained the upward momentum since Q3. The General Business Activity index posted a strong m/m gain to 24.5 as expectations for new orders, production and shipments improved. Expectations for wages & benefits, however, fell sharply.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company Outlook - Current (SA) | 23.4 | 9.1 | 3.4 | -1.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 6.8 |
| General Business Activity | 11.7 | 4.9 | 0.3 | -15.0 | 2.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Production | 24.7 | 17.1 | 10.8 | -1.5 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 6.9 |
| New Orders Volume | 21.3 | 14.7 | 9.5 | -4.0 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| Number of Employees | 19.7 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 8.9 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 8.0 | 7.3 | 11.2 | -3.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 9.2 |
| Wages & Benefits | 21.3 | 20.8 | 25.8 | 17.5 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 14.5 |
| Company Outlook - Future (6 Months Ahead) | 26.9 | 27.4 | 20.6 | 6.9 | 17.3 | 14.3 | 19.7 |
| General Business Activity | 24.5 | 17.6 | 15.2 | -5.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 10.0 |
| Production | 47.1 | 46.4 | 46.6 | 33.5 | 37.1 | 32.4 | 40.2 |
| New Orders Volume | 43.9 | 42.1 | 41.9 | 33.1 | 34.3 | 29.5 | 37.1 |
| Wages & Benefits | 39.8 | 47.6 | 42.8 | 38.4 | 38.2 | 34.2 | 35.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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