Global| Aug 04 2004European Retail Sales Rebound in June; New Accession Countries Show Vigorous Trend
Summary
Eurostat today reported retail sales indexes for June and May. June's figures for the region as a whole and for various individual countries generally show a rebound after a widespread drop in May. Specifically, the broadest measure, [...]
Eurostat today reported retail sales indexes for June and May. June's figures for the region as a whole and for various individual countries generally show a rebound after a widespread drop in May. Specifically, the broadest measure, the new "Euro-Zone 25" gained 1.2% in June after falling 1.0% in May. The older Euro-Zone 12 index jumped 1.8% after a steeper 2.2% fall. The seesaw in German sales was a source of the overall swing in both regional performances; France also participated.
At the same time, what is striking about the accompanying graph of the two aggregate retail sales gauges is how very much stronger the Euro-Zone 25 has been than the Euro-12 over the last several years. The larger economies show varying degrees of sluggishness, while stores in the "younger" Central and Eastern European economies have seen much more vigorous consumer buying. The second graph gives an example, as sales at outlets for nonfood goods in Germany are on a protracted downtrend, but those in the neighboring Czech Republic have been climbing consistently.
We can't carry the generalization too far. As indicated in the table below, French retail sales are in fact growing, in the last 12 months nearly as much as those in the Czech Republic. And sales in Slovakia have had a widely erratic pattern for several years. Even so, it appears that many consumers in the former communist areas are busy outfitting wardrobes and outfitting homes, while consumers in more economically mature areas are less exuberant.
| % Changes | June 2004 | May 2004 | Apr 2004 | Year Ago | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro-Zone 25 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Euro-Zone 12 | 1.8 | -2.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Germany | 1.9 | -2.7 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -2.0 | 1.0 |
| France | 1.5 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Czech Republic | N.A. | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Lithuania | N.A. | -1.9 | 2.0 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 2.3 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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