Global| Sep 12 2008Europe's IP Drops Yet Again…
Summary
E-zone industrial output is down for three months running. All sectors are lower m/m in July. Main EU/EMU countries have output lower in July with France and Spain as exceptions. But over three months all these large countries are [...]
E-zone industrial output is down for three months running. All sectors are lower m/m in July. Main EU/EMU countries have output lower in July with France and Spain as exceptions. But over three months all these large countries are showing output trends lower and from 12 months to 6 months to 3 months output trends are accelerating in a negative direction across all these countries. The trend in the e-Zone is quite clear.
In the quarter to date output is falling in each of the large EU countries, except Spain, where output is extremely volatile. For all of EMU the decline is at a 6.6% negative annual rate. Germany and Italy are seeing the most extreme weakness early in Q3.
| E-zone MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
|||
| Ezone Detail | Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2- Date |
| MFG | -0.5% | -0.3% | -1.5% | -8.5% | -5.4% | -5.0% | -2.2% | -1.9% | -0.6% | -6.6% |
| Consumer | -0.2% | 0.6% | -2.0% | -6.3% | -2.2% | -4.3% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -1.5% | -2.8% |
| C-Durables | -0.9% | 0.4% | -3.4% | -14.6% | -4.3% | -7.8% | -2.8% | -5.4% | -4.5% | |
| C-Nondurables | -0.3% | 0.7% | -1.5% | -4.3% | -2.4% | -3.7% | -2.1% | -1.4% | -0.8% | |
| Intermediate | -0.3% | -0.4% | -1.5% | -8.4% | -6.2% | -4.6% | -2.7% | -2.1% | -1.3% | -6.1% |
| Capital | -0.8% | -0.5% | -2.1% | -12.8% | -2.1% | -5.5% | 0.4% | -0.9% | 1.6% | -10.6% |
| Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
||||
| MFG Only | Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2- Date |
| Germany: | -2.0% | 0.5% | -1.9% | -13.1% | -6.9% | -7.8% | -2.2% | -0.2% | 2.2% | -13.3% |
| France: IP ex Construction | 1.2% | -0.6% | -3.0% | -9.5% | -8.5% | -3.8% | -5.3% | -2.0% | -1.9% | -1.5% |
| Italy | -1.5% | 0.0% | -1.8% | -12.3% | -4.9% | -5.8% | 0.4% | -4.1% | -2.4% | -11.8% |
| Spain | 10.4% | -5.1% | -14.8% | -36.7% | 13.0% | -5.9% | -17.9% | -2.7% | -9.8% | 3.6% |
| UK | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -4.1% | -4.1% | -3.0% | -1.9% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -3.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
