Global| Sep 17 2009Euro Trade Surplus Surges
Summary
Exports rose sharply in the e-Zone in July posting a gain of 4.1% in the month as imports edged lower by 0.3%. The widening surplus will boost EMU GDP and surpluses have emerged and steadily widened over the last four months. The [...]
Exports rose sharply in the e-Zone in July posting a gain of
4.1% in the month as imports edged lower by 0.3%. The widening surplus
will boost EMU GDP and surpluses have emerged and steadily widened over
the last four months. The chart shows a considerable trend in place
with exports rising and imports still extending their losses in
percentage terms.
Among export components raw material are having the largest
export boom over the previous three months (detailed trade data lag one
month). But even over that period MFG exports are falling at an 8.6%
pace. On the import side imports continue to post negative growth rates
even over three-months. Raw material imports are falling sharply on
that period. And manufacturing imports are falling at nearly
three-times the pace of MFG exports.
| Ezone 13-Trade trends for goods | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m% | % Saar | ||||
| Jul-09 | Jun-09 | 3M | 6M | 12M | |
| Balance* | €€ 6,777 | €€ 2,288 | €€ 3,514 | €€ 1,181 | €€ (1,230) |
| Exports | |||||
| All Exp | 4.1% | 0.9% | 14.2% | 8.6% | -20.1% |
| Food and Drinks | -- | 0.6% | 5.7% | -15.0% | -9.1% |
| Raw materials | -- | -0.2% | 84.5% | 8.4% | -21.8% |
| MFG | -- | -1.6% | -8.6% | -27.9% | -24.1% |
| IMPORTS | |||||
| All IMP | -0.3% | 0.2% | -10.7% | -14.5% | -28.7% |
| Food and Drinks | -- | -0.9% | -8.2% | -13.8% | -7.9% |
| Raw materials | -- | 0.3% | -49.4% | -58.0% | -41.2% |
| MFG | -- | -2.0% | -31.2% | -28.9% | -22.8% |
| *Eur mlns; mo or period average; Gray shaded areas lag one month | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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