Global| Jul 05 2007Euro Area Retail Sales Slow
Summary
German sales remain weak and its not all VAT at this point. Italy is weak. France is robust. Overall Euro area retail sales volume fell by 0.5% in May and are up by just 0.1% over three months and off by 0.2% over six months. Nonfood [...]
German sales remain weak and it’s not all VAT at this point. Italy is weak. France is robust.
Overall Euro area retail sales volume fell by 0.5% in May and are up by just 0.1% over three months and off by 0.2% over six months. Nonfood retail trends are better, but not by much. By comparison with the Euro area countries the UK, a large EU member, is showing still strong retail sales although its trend is showing a tail-off. The overall trend for the Euro area is showing some sign of exhaustion
While German retail sales are weak and dragging down the Euro area in May, Germany’s own growth is solid on strong MFG sector output and orders. The consumer sector is a lagging sector in Germany and its performance is distorted by the VAT start up that shifted some sales into late 2006. Clearly the consumer is not leading the growth in the Euro area except maybe in France.
| May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | 12-Mo | |
| Total | -0.5% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.7% |
| Food | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Nonfood | -0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.9% | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Textiles | #N/A | 1.5% | 0.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% |
| Household Goods | #N/A | -0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| Books news | #N/A | -0.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Pharmaceuticals | #N/A | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Other Not Specified Elsewhere | #N/A | -0.4% | 0.8% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Mail Order | #N/A | 0.8% | -1.7% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Nonfood Country Detail: Volume | ||||||
| Germany | -2.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -4.9% | -1.7% |
| France | #N/A | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Italy (Total Value) | #N/A | -0.5% | 0.2% | -1.7% | -1.1% | -0.9% |
| UK (EU) | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% |
| Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data | ||||||
| The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, | ||||||
| Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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