Global| Apr 14 2008Euro Area IP Looses Some Momentum
Summary
The e-Zone is showing some loss in momentum particularly among consumer goods and intermediate goods industries. Capital goods momentum has remained in tact albeit with hints of weakness in its recent volatility. In the quarter to [...]
The e-Zone is showing some loss in momentum particularly among
consumer goods and intermediate goods industries. Capital goods
momentum has remained in tact albeit with hints of weakness in its
recent volatility. In the quarter to date (Jan and Feb) growth is still
running at a strong 6% annual rate compared to Q4 of 2007. But consumer
goods output was negative in February and its Q1 growth rate is 2.2%.
Intermediate goods output rose by 0.5% in February and it up at a 5.3%
pace in Q1. Capital goods output is up by a strong 13.3% pace. Germany
continues to post very strong IP figures but these belie some recent
weakness in German orders. So far the Euro Area shows only scattered
signs of slowing despite some dips in morale and a still-rising euro
exchange rate.
| E-zone and UK IP and MFG | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Feb 08 |
Jan 08 |
Feb 08 |
Jan 08 |
Feb 08 |
Jan 08 |
|||
| Euro Area Detail | Feb 08 |
Jan 08 |
Dec 07 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2 Date |
| Manufacturing | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 6.0% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | -2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| Consumer Durables | -0.4% | 2.4% | -0.2% | 7.5% | 1.1% | -7.7% | -0.3% | -0.7% | 0.5% | -- |
| Consumer Nondurables | -0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | -1.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | -- |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 5.3% |
| Capital Goods | 0.9% | 2.4% | -0.3% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 13.3% |
| Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Feb 08 |
105.9 | Feb 08 |
105.9 | Feb 08 |
105.9 | ||||
| MFG Only | Feb08 | Jan-08 | Dec 07 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2 Date |
| Germany: | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 11.1% |
| France: IP excl Construction | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.3% | -1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Italy | -0.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 1.7% | -5.2% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.3% | 5.8% |
| Spain | 2.5% | 3.2% | -0.7% | 21.7% | -10.2% | 5.5% | 0.7% | 4.1% | -1.1% | 10.9% |
| UK | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
