Global| Jun 15 2011Euro-Area IP Barely Edges Ahead
Summary
The chart of the three main EMU sectors tells the basic story of the Zone. Capital goods output is relatively steady at growth rates between 6% and 10%. Intermediate goods output has slowed but has done so erratically. Meanwhile, [...]
The chart of the three main EMU sectors tells the basic story of the Zone. Capital goods output is relatively steady
at growth rates between 6% and 10%. Intermediate goods output has slowed but has done so erratically. Meanwhile, consumer
goods output has picked up in the current month but its trends are all flat. The pick-up in consumer goods durables output
is all on the back this month’s output jump.
For that reason, in the quarter-to-date consumer output is doing well as the current month’s observation carries the quarter’s extrapolated gain a long way. Intermediate goods output is up at a 2.2% pace in the new quarter and capital goods are firm but weaker than they have been with an annualized rate of growth of 3.9%.
Among large countries Germany and Italy are seeing output gains in the new quarter with Spain, France, and the UK lower.
The EMU, like the US, is seeing some weaker trends in industrial output developing. For the time being there seems to be a taste to keep a stiff upper lip and to assume that Japan’s cascading disasters are responsible for spreading theses ripples of weakness. But given the widespread slowdown across sectors, this idea may just be a too-pat excuse. For now there is no panic about the slowing. But there are many things beyond Japan that could be responsible. Markets are acting as if they are a bit more worried about growth developments and prospects, as stocks have been hit globally and bond yields have moved lower and stuck there.
| Euro-Area MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR Except M/M |
Mo/Mo | Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
|||
| Euro-Area Detail |
Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
Feb 11 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | Q-2 Date |
| MFG | 0.1% | -0.4% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 1.4% |
| Consumer | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 6.1% |
| C-Durables | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.5% | |
| C-Non-durables | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.5% | |
| Intermediate | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 2.2% |
| Capital | 0.5% | -0.9% | 2.3% | 7.7% | -2.8% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 3.9% |
| Main Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
||||
| MFG Only | Apr 11 |
Mar 11 |
Feb 11 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | Q:2 Date |
| Germany: | -0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 4.2% |
| France:IPx Construct'n |
-0.3% | -1.1% | 0.4% | -3.8% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | -5.2% |
| Italy | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 12.2% |
| Spain | -3.6% | 0.2% | -1.2% | -17.0% | 11.0% | -1.9% | 6.4% | -2.1% | 0.8% | -21.1% |
| UK:EU member |
-1.5% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -5.9% | 3.1% | -1.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | -8.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
More Economy in Brief
