Robert Brusca

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The EMU indexes made sharp rebounds in June but are still weak in their respective historic queues of values. Construction has been the relative strongest sector at its 62.1 percentile and nothing else quite close to that. The next strongest reading is from consumer confidence that lies in its 19.6 queue percentile.

The country level percentile standings are also uniformly weak. All but two countries have rebounded month-to-month (Malta and Greece).


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The sector rankings by country remain uniformly weak. Construction is consistently strong across countries. Services then industry are the weakest sectors. But the overall EU sentiment reading is the weakest of all because it is the confluence of weakness across sectors that is unprecedented.


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The EMU indexes made sharp rebounds in June but are still weak in their respective historic queues of values. Construction has been the relative strongest sector at its 62.1 percentile and nothing else quite close to that. The next [...]

EMU Sentiment Rises and Sectors Improve

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Tom Moeller

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At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Federal funds rate was left unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50%. Each member of the FOMC voted in favor of today’s action. The Fed’s focus continues to be reducing price inflation, as mentioned several times in the meeting summary.

Text accompanying today’s meeting indicated, “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

“The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.”

“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

In addition, “Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”

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- Fed maintains focus on inflation reduction.
- Federal funds rate range remains at 5.25% - 5.50%, where it’s been since early-August 2023.
- Rate stays at highest level since March 2001.

FOMC Holds Funds Rate Steady

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The Autodata Corporation reported that U.S. light vehicle sales rose 2.8% (1.5% y/y) to 16.00 million units (SAAR) in April after falling 1.9% to 15.56 million in March. Sales averaged 15.43 million in Q1.

Sales of light trucks rose 2.9% (3.4% y/y) during April to 12.9 million units (SAAR) after falling 1.3% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks edged 0.5% higher to 9.68 million units (unchanged y/y), after falling 2.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks strengthened 10.7% (15.0% y/y) to 3.22 million units, the highest level in three years,  after a 3.6% March increase.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market held steady at a record 80.6% last month compared to 79.1% in April of last year.

Auto sales rose 1.3% (-5.8% y/y) to 3.10 million units (SAAR) in April following a 2.9% March decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars improved 2.8% (-7.2% y/y) last month to 2.19 million units after falling 3.6% in March. Sales of imported autos weakened 2.2% both m/m and y/y to 0.91 million units after easing 1.1% in March.

Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market rose to 25.8% in April from 24.7% in March, up versus a May 2023 low of 22.3%. Imports' share of the passenger car market declined to 29.4% from 30.4% in March. It reached a high of 37.9% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market improved to 25.0%, a five-month high, from 23.2% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales improve considerably while passenger car sales edge higher.
- Imports' market share gains ground.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Move Up in April

Winnie Tapasanun

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April after rising to 50.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The April manufacturing PMI, below the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the 17th time in 18 months. While slightly higher than 47.0 in April 2023 and a low of 46.5 in March 2023, the April reading remained below a peak of 64.0 in March 2021. A reading of 50.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for April.

The production index declined to 51.3 in April from 54.6 in March, suggesting production expanded for the third time in four months but at a slower pace compared to March; it was below a high of 66.8 in March 2021. A 22.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production in April while 15.3% reported lower. The employment index increased to 48.6 in April from 47.4 in March, indicating employment contracted for the seventh successive month but at a slightly less severe pace. The index remained down from a high of 57.7 in March 2021. An increased 16.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment in April while 15.8% reported less hiring.

The new orders index dropped to 49.1 in April after increasing to 51.4 in March, indicating new orders contracted for the second time in three months to the lowest level since December. It was up from a low of 42.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 61.3 in February 2022. A 19.9% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders in April while 16.9% reported a decline. The inventories index was at 48.2 in April and March after 45.3 in February, showing inventories contracted for the 15th consecutive month. The index remained down from a high of 56.5 in July 2022. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index was at 48.9 in April, compared to 49.9 in March and 50.1 in February, indicating the delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organization was slightly faster for the second successive month. An 8.1% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds in April while an increased 10.3% reported faster speeds.

Inflation has remained sticky. The prices paid index jumped to 60.9 (NSA) in April after rising to 55.8 in March, indicating raw materials prices rose for the fourth straight month to the highest reading since June 2022. The April index was well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but meaningfully below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. An increased 30.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices in April while only 9.1% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index dropped to 48.7 in April after registering at 51.6 in March and February, indicating new export orders contracted for the first time in three months. It was down from a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index fell to 51.9 in April from 53.0 in March and February, remaining at an expansion level for the fourth consecutive month; it was down from a high of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index decreased to 45.4 (NSA) in April from 46.3 in March and February, indicating falling backlog levels for the 19th straight month. It was up from a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but down from a high of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 20 industries, which correspond to their contribution to GDP in 50 states. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- 49.2 in April vs. 50.3 in March, lower than expected.
- Production expands for the third month in four.
- Employment contracts for the seventh straight month.
- New orders contract to a four-month low after March’s expansion.
- Amid ongoing inflationary pressures, prices index rises to 60.9, the highest since June ’22.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts in April, w/ Prices Highest Since June ’22

Carol Stone, CBE

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Job openings decreased 325,000 in March to 8.488 million after rising 65,000 in February, revised from 8,000 reported before, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The March amount is down -11.8% from 9.623 million a year ago, that is, March 2023, and down even more from 12.182 million in March 2022. The job openings rate, that is, the number of job openings as a percent of employment plus job openings on the last business day of the month, was 5.1% this March, down from 5.3% the prior month.

Private sector job openings fell 364,000 this March, following a 9,000 decline in February. The private sector rate was 5.3%, down from February’s 5.5%. The biggest change in private sector job openings was a 182,000 drop in construction; the rate in that industry fell from 5.3% in February to 3.2% in March. Another sizable decline was in finance and insurance, where opening fell 158,000 in March, and the rate dropped to 5.0% from 7.1% in February. Retail trade saw a 64,000 decrease in openings and a fall in the rate from 3.7% to 3.3%.  Industries with positive moves include the information sector, +43,000 openings in March and a rate change from 4.0% to 5.3%. The state and local education sector saw an increase in openings of 68,000 in March, with the associated rate moving to 2.9% from 2.3% the prior month.

Hiring showed widespread declines across industries with total hirings down 281,000 in March, making a rate of 3.5%, down from February’s 3.7%. The rates here are the amount of hiring during the entire month as a percent of total employment. Construction also saw a hiring decline, 59,000, with its rate moving down to 4.1% from 4.9% in February. Transportation, warehousing and utilities saw a 50,000 decrease in March’s hiring, and a decline in the rate to 3.4% from 4.1%. There were just a few increases, notably in private educational services, +10,000 in March and a move in the rate from 2.1% to 2.4%. Another notable increase took place in durable goods manufacturing, 6,000 in March, although this was not large enough to raise the rate in that industry, which stayed flat at 2.2%.

Layoffs actually fell in March by 155,000; the associated rate, that is, layoffs during the whole month as a percent of total employment, was 1.0%, down from 1.1% in February. These decreases in layoffs were spread across numerous industries; interestingly the most sizable decrease was in construction, 63,000, following an increase in that industry’s layoffs in February of 21,000. The March layoff rate in construction was 1.8% in March, down from 2.5% in February. The highest layoff rate among industries was 3.5% in arts, entertainment and recreation, and this was down from 5.0% in February.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings rise in just a few industries in March.
- Hiring declined among many industries in March.
- Construction job openings fell in March, but so did construction industry layoffs.

U.S. Job Openings Fell in March, but So Did Layoffs