Global| Oct 04 2013EMU PPI Edges Higher
Summary
The EMU-wide PPI is now rising over three months; but it is still falling over six months and 12 months. Despite the fact that PPI's falling faster over six months than over 12 months it is advancing over the most recent three months. [...]
The EMU-wide PPI is now rising over three months; but it is still falling over six months and 12 months. Despite the fact that PPI's falling faster over six months than over 12 months it is advancing over the most recent three months. Intermediate goods prices continue to be under downward pressure. Consumer goods prices are gradually showing increasing upward pressure. The capital goods inflation remains very low, barely positive, in a stationary trajectory.
Looking at a selection of EMU countries we find a preponderance of countries with inflation falling over 12 months; only the UK and Ireland are exceptions. Over six months the group still shows declining prices with Ireland and the UK still an exception. Over three months prices are falling only in Italy and Austria. Elsewhere prices increase over three months.
Even though the year-over-year trends remain weak, it appears that the EMU region is putting its deflation behind it. As we see more indications of growth from the purchasing manager surveys for manufacturing and services, and from conventional economic indicators, incoming data continue to point toward an ongoing recovery in the European Monetary Union. The producer prices move in a positive territory is a supporting piece of evidence to this point of view.
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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