Global| Jan 14 2009EMU Industrial Production is Plunging
Summary
Recession clearly has come to the Euro Area and to its member countries. Industrial output is dropping at a horrendous pace. The sequential growth rates in the table below show that IP has gone from a Yr/Yr decline of 7.1% to [...]
Recession clearly has come to the Euro Area and to its member countries. Industrial output is dropping at a horrendous pace. The sequential growth rates in the table below show that IP has gone from a Yr/Yr decline of 7.1% to declining over six months at a pace of 10.3% and to a drop over three months at minus 19.1%. The unraveling in the EMU is rapid. It is also widespread with consumer durables and consumer nondurables intermediate goods and capital goods all being swept up in the acceleration of the decline. The bottom of the table demonstrates that all the main euro member countries and the UK are greatly affected. The far right column reflects the declines for the special quarter in progress, at this time that is 2008-Q4. The negative impact on growth for the quarter is intense and, again, very widespread.
| Euro Area MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
|||
| Euro Area Detail | Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Sep 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12 mo |
12 mo |
Q-4 |
| MFG | -1.7% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -19.1% | -11.5% | -10.3% | -10.4% | -7.1% | -5.6% | -16.0% |
| Consumer | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.7% | -4.9% | -5.9% | -2.7% | -6.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -5.0% |
| C-Durables | -2.4% | -1.8% | -2.5% | -23.9% | -13.4% | -12.7% | -14.7% | -9.8% | -8.7% | |
| C-Nondurables | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -2.6% | -4.3% | -1.1% | -4.2% | -2.2% | -2.7% | |
| Intermediate | -2.8% | -2.4% | -3.1% | -28.5% | -16.5% | -15.6% | -13.9% | -10.3% | -7.7% | -23.5% |
| Capital | -1.8% | -2.3% | -1.9% | -21.8% | -11.5% | -11.4% | -12.4% | -7.2% | -5.1% | -18.1% |
| Main Euro Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
||||
| MFG Only | Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Sep 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12 mo |
12 mo |
Q-2- Date |
| Germany: | -3.5% | -2.1% | -3.7% | -31.4% | -9.8% | -13.6% | -10.7% | -6.9% | -3.7% | -22.5% |
| France: IP ex Construction | -2.4% | -3.7% | -0.7% | -24.1% | -18.1% | -13.0% | -14.2% | -9.0% | -8.0% | -23.6% |
| Italy | -2.3% | -1.7% | -3.4% | -25.8% | -17.6% | -15.1% | -15.0% | -9.1% | -7.8% | -21.5% |
| Spain | -11.5% | 0.1% | 2.9% | -30.9% | -26.4% | -23.9% | -29.6% | -17.2% | -11.2% | -30.4% |
| UK: EU member | -2.9% | -1.4% | -1.0% | -19.2% | -11.2% | -12.7% | -8.4% | -7.4% | -5.0% | -16.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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