Global| Aug 16 2004Empire State Index Slows 23 Points for August
Summary
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York's manufacturing industries dropped 23 points in August to 12.6, its lowest reading in 15 months. The July figure was revised down slightly from 36.54 to 35.75. All of [...]
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York's manufacturing industries dropped 23 points in August to 12.6, its lowest reading in 15 months. The July figure was revised down slightly from 36.54 to 35.75.
All of the activity components of the survey showed significant reductions, particularly new orders and shipments. Unfilled orders registered -4.61, their first negative reading since September 2003. However, the employment measure managed a modest pick-up to 16.98 from 13.06 in July. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.
The prices paid index eased from 56.41 in July to 49.59. This is still relatively high, but maintains the general range of the last several months, indicating that prices of the materials used by these companies have stopped accelerating.
The August index of expectations for business conditions six months ahead decreased by about 5 points. Expectations for capital expenditures fell for a fourth consecutive month.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | August | July | 8/03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index) | 12.57 | 35.75 | 13.02 | 16.30 | 7.02 | -13.57 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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