Global| Aug 17 2009Empire State Factory Conditions Improve To Highest Level in Two Years
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For August, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was positive and at its highest level in two years. The latest reading of 12.08 compares to sharply negative [...]
For August, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was positive and at its highest level in two years. The latest reading of 12.08 compares to sharply negative levels this past Winter and suggests positive growth in factory sector activity. The latest level was better than Consensus expectations for a reading of 3.0.
The figure is a diffusion index. Since the series' inception in 2001, there has been a 75% correlation between its level and the three-month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to independent survey questions; it is not a weighted combination of the components. The series dates back only to 2001.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
The new orders component paced the August index gain with a rise to the highest level in two years. The shipments index also improved to its highest since early-2008 while the employment index jumped m/m to its highest level since last October. In the history of the NY employment index, there has been an 87% correlation between the employment index and the three-month growth in overall U.S. factory sector employment as reported by the Labor Department. The workweek index also improved sharply as the unfilled orders, inventories and delivery times series rose modestly.
The price index firmed to its highest level since November. Nevertheless, the index level remained down sharply from last year. Since inception in 2001, there has been a 77% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three-month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months rose during August to its highest level since early 2007. The subseries for new orders, shipments, employment and capital expenditures each ticked up. The Empire State data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.Below the Line: Estimates of Negative Equity among Nonprime Mortgage Borrowers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | August | July | August '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index, %) | 12.08 | -0.55 | -1.16 | -10.10 | 17.23 | 20.24 |
| New Orders | 13.43 | 5.89 | -3.50 | -6.25 | 15.71 | 20.11 |
| Employment | -7.45 | -20.83 | -4.49 | -5.36 | 11.28 | 12.62 |
| Prices Paid | 13.83 | 10.42 | 65.17 | 46.99 | 35.64 | 41.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
