Global| Mar 20 2006ECRI Leading Index: Momentum Strength Diminished
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped 0.1% last week. The decline was the fifth in the last six weeks and lowered the index's six month growth rate to 3.0% from an [...]
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped 0.1% last week. The decline was the fifth in the last six weeks and lowered the index's six month growth rate to 3.0% from an early February high of 5.1%.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 71% during the last five years.
The very recent deceleration in the leaders' growth follows improvement early this year. That slowdown mirrors the pattern of slightly slower growth in the leading series from the Conference Board and the OECD.
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| Economic Cycle Research Institute | 3/10/06 | 12/30/05 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Leading Index | 136.8 | 135.7 | 0.8% | 134.5 | 132.6 | 124.9 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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