Global| Feb 27 2002Durable Goods Orders Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders rose more-than- expected last month, but December's previously reported gain was revised lower. Excluding transportation, durable orders rose 1.3%, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. December's 0.4% gain was [...]
Durable goods orders rose more-than- expected last month, but December's previously reported gain was revised lower.
Excluding transportation, durable orders rose 1.3%, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. December's 0.4% gain was revised slightly down.
Higher aircraft orders, up 21.6%, added to a 4.3% gain in the motor vehicle sector, the forth gain in a row.
Orders for nondefense capital goods rose slightly but December's previously reported gain now shows decline. Excluding aircraft, capital goods orders fell 0.1% following two month of strong gain.
Orders for computers and electronics products rose for the fourth month in a row. Orders for semiconductors, computers and communication equipment all rose. Orders for electrical equipment fell sharply for the second month but machinery orders rose.
Shipments rose sharply. Excluding transportation shipments rose 2.5%, the first meaningful rise since October.
Inventories of durable goods fell for the twelfth consecutive month.
| NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 2.6% | 0.9% | -2.2% | -12.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.5% | -1.2% | -17.4% | -17.2% | 14.4% | 3.5% |
by Tom Moeller February 27, 2002
Sales of new single family homes fell much more than expected last month after surging in November and December, which was revised up. Consensus estimates were for sales at a 925,000 annual rate.
January sales were the lowest since June 2000, but may have biased lower by strong seasonal adjustment factors.
Sales were mixed across the country's region, falling most sharply in the South but rising in the Northeast.
The median price of a new home rose sharply to $183,400, 7.1% y/y. December's figures were revised up.
| Homes Sales (000s, AR) | Jan '02 | Dec '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Single-Family | 823 | 966 | -12.3% | 907 | 881 | 879 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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