Louise Curley

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The Survey of the Distributive Trades conducted by the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) showed that the balance of outlets reporting increases in sales over a year ago in the UK fell from 43 in June to 24 in July. The survey has tended to anticipate year-to-year changes in total retail sales as shown in the attached chart.
The National Statistical Office attributed the strong showing of retail sales in June to Euro 2004, the European soccer tournament that boosted sales of TVs and sportswear. With the ending of Euro 2004 and the impact of higher borrowing costs arising out of the increases in the Bank Rate since last November a moderation in consumer spending or even a decline would not be unusual. Moreover, by June, retail sales had experienced the longest period of expansion--thirteen straight months without a decline--since the data began in 1986.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 03</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp;%&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
<th scope="col">2002 %</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2001 %</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales Survey of Distributive Trades (Balance)</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>37</td>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jun 04</td>
<td>May 04</td>
<td>Jun&nbsp;&nbsp; 03&nbsp;</td>
<td>M/M&nbsp; %</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp;%&nbsp;</td>
<td>2003 %</td>
<td>2002&nbsp; %</td>
<td>&nbsp;2001 %</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales Office of National Statistics</td>
<td>120.3</td>
<td>119.7</td>
<td>113.7</td>
<td>0.92</td>
<td>6.24</td>
<td>114.1</td>
<td>111.8</td>
<td>105.9</td>
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The Survey of the Distributive Trades conducted by the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) showed that the balance of outlets reporting increases in sales over a year ago in the UK fell from 43 in June to 24 in July. The survey [...]

Distributive Trades Survey in UK Suggests A Slowing or Even a Decline in Retail Sales

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Tom Moeller

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 0.6% (-3.6% y/y) during the four weeks ended May 9, 2025. The improvement followed sharp declines in April.

Miscellaneous group prices increased 2.4% (5.9% y/y) over the last four weeks. Natural rubber price soared 13.9% (11.7% y/y). The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) rose 10.6% (41.3% y/y) in four weeks but the cost of framing lumber declined 5.6%, but rose 7.3% y/y.

Prices in the Metals group edged 0.2% higher (-7.3% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Variation in pricing was wide. Copper scrap prices rose 7.4% (-3.3% y/y) while lead costs rose 4.0% in four weeks (-11.1% y/y). The cost of aluminum increased 2.3% in four weeks, off 4.4% y/y. Working lower, the cost of steel scrap declined 8.1% (-11.6% y/) in four weeks while tin prices followed with a 4.9% decline (-2.9% y/y). Zinc prices eased 0.7% in four weeks and declined 10.3% y/y.

Crude Oil & Benzene group prices edged 0.1% higher (-19.4% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened 4.0% to $58.50 per barrel and was 25.6% lower y/y. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, strengthened 8.5% (-41.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.9% (-2.1% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Textile group prices edged 0.9% lower (-0.5% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs declined 14.3% (+7.4% y/y) but the cost of cotton rose 4.5% (-7.7% y/y) over four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Metals prices are mixed.
- Crude oil prices fall sharply.
- Textile prices ease.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Movement Diverges in Latest Four Weeks

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Wholesale trade inventories increased 0.4% (2.2% y/y) during March after rising 0.5% in February, revised from 0.3% after a 0.8% January rise. The increase compared to expectations for a 0.5% rise in the Informa Global Markets Survey and compared to a 0.6% gain in the advance report issued two weeks ago.

Durable goods inventories rose 0.6% in March (1.5% y/y) after rising 0.5% in February. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, increased 0.6% (1.7% y/y) while inventories of motor vehicles & parts, the second largest grouping, rose 1.2% (0.8% y/y). Furniture inventories strengthened 2.7% (6.8% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories declined 1.0% (-3.1% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods edged 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y). Drug inventories, which make up one-quarter of nondurable inventories, advanced 1.0% (4.6% y/y). Grocery inventories, the second largest category, rose 0.4% (8.3% y/y). Apparel inventories fell 0.8% (-6.5% y/y) and chemical inventories rose 2.1% both m/m and y/y. Petroleum inventories increased 0.7% (0.3% y/y).

Sales at the wholesale level rose 0.6% (6.1% y/y) in March after rising 2.0% in February and falling 0.9% in January. A 0.9% March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales rose 1.0% (8.5% y/y) in March after strengthening 3.2% in February. Sales of electrical equipment & electronic goods, the largest sector, rose 2.5% (20.9% y/y), after a 2.3% rise. Professional and commercial equipment sales, which includes computers, rose 1.2% (11.9% y/y), while vehicle sales declined 1.0% (1.1% y/y). Sales of machinery improved 0.7% (4.2% y/y). Nondurable product sales rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) in March after gaining 0.9% in February. Drug store sales, the largest category, increased 2.8% (13.4% y/y), while grocery store sales eased 0.2% (+4.3% y/y). Sales of apparel weakened 0.8% (+3.5% y/y) while paper sales declined 1.7% (0.5% y/y). Petroleum product sales fell 4.6% both m/m and y/y.

The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level remained at 1.30 in March and has been moving lower for the last two years.

The wholesale I/S ratio for durable goods eased to 1.69 in March and also has been trending lower. The machinery ratio fell to 2.92 while motor vehicles rose to 1.78. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods slipped to 0.93 and remained down from 1.02 early in 2023. The drug industry ratio eased to 0.94. Apparel's I/S ratio held at 2.06, but remained below its 2.28 level one year earlier, and has been declining since early 2023. The petroleum industry I/S ratio rose to 0.33.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

**Assessing Maximum Employment** from Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kugler20250509a.htm).

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- Inventories trend higher y/y.
- Sales increase broadly.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio steadies.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Increase in March

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Nonfarm labor productivity fell 0.8% (SAAR) during Q1’25 after increasing 1.7% in Q4’24, revised from 1.5%. A 0.6% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first productivity decline since Q2’22. The y/y increase during Q1 fell to 1.4% from 2.1% in Q4. It was below a 3.3% high in the first quarter of last year. Productivity fell as real value-added output dropped 0.3% last quarter (+2.2% y/y) after increasing 2.5% in Q4, and hours worked lengthened 0.6% (0.8% y/y) following a 0.8% gain.

Compensation per hour increased 4.8% last quarter following a 3.7% Q4 rise. Despite the strength of these last two increases, y/y growth decelerated to 2.7% from a 6.8% high one year earlier. Nevertheless, the productivity decline raised unit labor costs by 5.7% (1.3% y/y) in Q1 versus expectations for a 5.2% increase. It followed a 2.0% gain during Q4 and was the strongest quarterly increase in a year.

Factory sector productivity surged 4.5% (1.5% y/y) during Q1’25 following three consecutive increases of roughly 0.5%. This strength was accompanied by a 6.2% rise (2.2% y/y) in hourly compensation which came after two consecutive increases of approximately 4.1%. The strength in productivity lowered the rise in unit labor costs to 1.6% from 3.8% in Q4. The y/y gain fell to 0.7% from 2.0% in Q4 and stood below the 6.2% y/y increase in Q1’24.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Productivity declines with lower output.
- Compensation surge exacerbates labor market stress.
- Factory sector productivity surge lessens cost pressure.

U.S. Productivity Declines in Q1’25; Unit Labor Costs Surge

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The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) rose 0.6% (3.2% y/y) in March to 103.2 after rising 0.9% to 102.6 in February and rising 0.8% in January to 101.7. The level of home affordability has risen 14.8% from its low of 89.9 in October 2023. It remains 42.4% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The rise in affordability in March occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home rose 1.8% (2.9% y/y) to $408,000 which was offset by a decline in mortgage rates to 6.73% from 6.92% in February. The price compared to the record $432,900 in June 2024. The decline in mortgage rates compared to a recent low of 6.26% in September of last year and a 7.70% high during October of 2023. It remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%. These changes lowered the principal & interest payment by 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) to $2,113 per month. That was well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a lessened 24.2% of income during March. They remained up from a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The rise in housing costs in March was accompanied by improvement in median family income. It increased 0.4% (4.4% y/y) to a record $104,705 after rising 0.4% in February and 0.7% in January.

Housing affordability improved m/m across the country in March. The index edged 0.1% higher (2.8% y/y) to 134.5 in the Midwest. It remains the most affordable region of the country. In the South, the index 0.9% (5.4% y/y) to 106.6 and the affordability index in the Northeast increased 2.1% (-2.6% y/y) to 95.7. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index rose 0.8% (3.3% y/y) to 71.8 in March.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013; since then, it fell below 100 for the first time in June 2022.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

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- Home prices rise but mortgage rates decline.
- Median income improves.
- Affordability increases across the country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Improves Slightly in March

	Jul 04	Jun 04	Jul 03	M/M %	Y/Y %	2003 %	2002 %	2001 %
Retail Sales Survey of Distributive Trades (Balance)	24	43	27	-19	-3	14	23	37
	Jun 04	May 04	Jun 03	M/M %	Y/Y %	2003 %	2002 %	2001 %
Retail Sales Office of National Statistics	120.3	119.7	113.7	0.92	6.24	114.1	111.8	105.9