Global| Oct 14 2005Depressed U.S. Consumer Sentiment Fell Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The preliminary October reading of consumer sentiment at 75.4 from the University of Michigan slipped 2.0% from September to the lowest level since 1992 and contrasted to Consensus expectations for improvement to 80.0. During the last [...]
The preliminary October reading of consumer sentiment at 75.4 from the University of Michigan slipped 2.0% from September to the lowest level since 1992 and contrasted to Consensus expectations for improvement to 80.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The current conditions index fell 2.4% m/m (-8.0% y/y) as sentiment regarding buying conditions for large household goods fell 4.6% (-8.9% y/y) but the read of personal finances improved 1.0% m/m (-7.1% y/y).
Consumer expectations slipped 1.4% after two months of double digit decline. Expected personal finances fell 3.5% (-12.6% y/y) but expected business conditions during the next 12 months improved a slight 3.2% (-43.4% y/y).
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months was about stable at 5.4% but still up from 3.4% during all of last year.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | October (Prelim.) | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 75.4 | 76.9 | -17.8% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 95.7 | 98.1 | -8.0% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 62.4 | 63.3 | -25.5% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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