Global| Jul 20 2004Demographic Shifts in Japan
Summary
Monthly population estimates for Japan were reported today as of July 1 by the Japanese Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Post & Telecommunications. The new data reveal a small outright decline in the population of Japan [...]
Monthly population estimates for Japan were reported today as of July 1 by the Japanese Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Post & Telecommunications. The new data reveal a small outright decline in the population of Japan this year from July 2003. Details are not yet available, but the decline may owe to foreign visitors or workers leaving the country, rather than to a decrease in the number of Japanese people. Even so, patterns of births and deaths through January (which were reported yesterday) imply a slight natural decrease.
Another major force in Japanese demographics is the rapidly increasing size of the elderly population. As indicated in the table below, women over age 75 constitute more than 10-1/2% of the total population of women; this share has increased almost 4 percentage points in the last ten years. The number of elderly men is also gaining; their share of the total male population has risen 2-1/2 percentage points since 1994 to 6.5% in July.
By comparison, the population of the US is growing at about 1% a year. Older Americans are also increasing, but much more gradually as a share of the total population than in Japan. Growing numbers of the elderly increase conditions of dependency in the economies of these two nations and others as well. Japan's rates are higher now, but as the US "Baby Boomers" age, the share of elderly will go up markedly here too.
| 10 Thousand People | July 2004 | July 2003 | July 2002 | July 2001 | July 1994 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan: Total | 12761 | 12765 | 12740 | 12713 | 12496 |
| Yr/Yr % Change | -0.03 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.21* |
| Female | 6537 | 6534 | 6516 | 6497 | 6367 |
| Yr/Yr % Change | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0.26* |
| % over Age 75 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Male | 6224 | 6231 | 6224 | 6216 | 6129 |
| Yr/Yr % Change | -0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.15* |
| % over Age 75 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| United States: Total | 29292** | 29081 | 28797 | 28509 | 26313 |
| Yr/Yr % Change | 0.97** | 0.98 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 1.11* |
| % over Age 75 | N.A. | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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