Global| Aug 17 2004CPI Falls 0.1% in July; "Core" Also Weak
Summary
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) fell 0.1% in July versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1-0.2% rise. As last month, the surprise was fueled by energy prices, which dropped 1.9% after July's 2.6% surge. Seasonally adjusted gasoline [...]
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) fell 0.1% in July versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1-0.2% rise. As last month, the surprise was fueled by energy prices, which dropped 1.9% after July's 2.6% surge.
Seasonally adjusted gasoline prices fell back 4.2%, carrying them also below their May level, though still well higher than any previous period.
Core consumer prices again rose less than expected, at 0.1% versus a 0.2% forecast. A variety of prices fell outright, including household furnishings and operations, -0.3%, apparel, a sizable 0.8%, and recreation, -0.2%; medical commodities were off just slightly.
In the other direction, health care services and education tuition and fees continued their long-standing uptrends; school books and supplies, however, edged down 0.1%.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, edged down 0.1%. It is similar to the PCE price deflator. The core chain price measure was again unchanged; it has not risen since April.
| Consumer Price Index | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.3% | 0.0% | -1.2% | -2.0% | -1.1% | 0.3% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Energy | -1.9% | 2.6% | 14.3% | 12.2% | -5.8% | 3.7% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.1% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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