Global| May 31 2005Consumer Confidence Rebounded
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The May Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board rebounded much more than expected to 102.2. Confidence had fallen in each of the prior three months and Consensus expectations had been for another decline to 96.1. During [...]
The May Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board rebounded much more than expected to 102.2. Confidence had fallen in each of the prior three months and Consensus expectations had been for another decline to 96.1.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumer expectations recovered nearly all of the prior month's sharp drop as expectations for jobs and business conditions rose.
The present situation index also recovered nearly all of the prior month's decline though jobs were viewed both as more plentiful and hard to get by a greater number of survey participants.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 102.2 | 97.5 | 9.8% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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