Global| Jun 27 2006Consumer Confidence Improved A Bit
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board improved 1.0% in June to 105.7. The rise recovered a piece of the 4.6% May decline that was revised slightly shallower. It contrasted to Consensus expectations for a further [...]
Consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board improved 1.0% in June to 105.7. The rise recovered a piece of the 4.6% May decline that was revised slightly shallower. It contrasted to Consensus expectations for a further decline to 103.5 and compared to a 4.2% rise in the University of Michigan's June Index of Consumer Sentiment.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation fell for a second month and posted a 1.0% decline (+9.9% y/y). The percentage of respondents who viewed business conditions as good (26.8%) fell for a second month and the percentage that viewed jobs as hard to get (19.9%) reversed the prior month's rise.
The index of consumers' expectations rose a modest 2.9% (-9.1% y/y) and recovered just part of the May decline. Expectations for business conditions in six months improved slightly as did expectations that the number of jobs would rise. Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months slipped to 5.1% from 5.6% expected in May.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | June | May | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 105.7 | 104.7 | -0.5% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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