Global| Apr 29 2008Consumer Confidence Fell in April, As Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in April fell 5.5% after a 13.7% m/m decline in March. That March decline was slightly less than indicated initially and the April drop about matched Consensus expectations. The [...]
The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in April fell 5.5% after a 13.7% m/m decline in March. That March decline was slightly less than indicated initially and the April drop about matched Consensus expectations.
The present conditions index led the April decline with a
10.9% m/m drop to the lowest level since late 2003. By region the index
is off most notably in the Pacific, mid-Atlantic, the South Atlantic,
and in the New England states.
Just 15.3% of respondents saw business conditions as good, the lowest since 2003. Jobs as plentiful were seen by a much lessened 16.6% while 27.9% saw jobs as hard to get, the highest since late 2004.
The expectations component of the index ticked up all of 1.4% after two months of double digit decline. The percentage of respondents expecting better business conditions and more jobs rose slightly while expectations for an increase in income fell. Expectations for the inflation rate surged again to 6.8%, the highest level since 2005.
Respondents planning to buy a household appliance rose slightly but remained well off the early 2007 highs. Plan to but a new automobile rose slightly m/m but also remained well off earlier highs.
Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? is a 2006 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It answers "no" and it is available here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | April | March | Y/Y % | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 62.3 | 65.9 | -41.4 | 103.4 | 105.9 | 100.3 |
| Present Situation | 80.7 | 90.6 | -34.6 | 128.8 | 130.2 | 116.1 |
| Expectations | 50.1 | 49.4 | -43.2 | 86.4 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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