Global| Dec 30 2004Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell for the second consecutive month in December to 61.2, the lowest level since August. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.3. During the last ten years there has [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell for the second consecutive month in December to 61.2, the lowest level since August. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.3.
During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.
The employment index reversed all of the gains of the prior four months and fell 11.7 points to 49.1, the first month below 50 since July. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders index also fell to the lowest level since August and during the last two months is off 14.9 points.
The index of prices paid eased moderately to 84.4. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Dec | Nov | Dec '03 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 61.2 | 65.2 | 61.2 | 62.9 | 54.7 | 52.7 |
| New Orders | 64.5 | 70.0 | 66.1 | 67.1 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 84.4 | 89.8 | 57.3 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
by Tom Moeller December 30, 2004
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board fell to 36 in November, the bottom of the 36-40 range it has moved in since 2Q 2003.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume dropped sharply to 37%, roughly half the prior month's strong reading.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
The latest report from the Conference Board is available here.
| Conference Board | Nov | Oct | Nov '03 |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Help Wanted Index | 36 | 37 | 38 |
by Tom Moeller December 30, 2004
Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell by 5,000 to 326,000 last week following a downwardly revised 15,000 rise the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 333,500 (-7.9% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 29,000 but have drifted sideways for the last several weeks.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2%, where it's been since early October.
"The Economy Gets Back on Track but Once Again Leaves Many Workers Behind" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/25/04 | 12/18/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 326 | 331 | -6.6% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,755 | -16.9% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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