Global| Jul 22 2019Chicago Fed National Activity Index Steadies
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index was little changed at -0.02 during June. That came after rising to -0.03 in May from April's -0.73. The three-month moving average also was steady last [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index was little changed at -0.02 during June. That came after rising to -0.03 in May from April's -0.73. The three-month moving average also was steady last month versus May at -0.26, after April's weakening to -0.47. During the last twenty years, there has been a 70% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The National Activity Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, also was steady at -0.11. That was down from the peak of 0.47 in April 2018.
Stability in the June index reflected mixed performance amongst the component series. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series rose to 0.06 from -0.08. It was the highest level since January. The Personal Consumption & Housing reading was steady m/m at -0.05, up from the December 2018 low of -0.19. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure eased m/m to -0.03, but remained up sharply from its low just two months earlier. The Production & Income component fell moderately to 0.00, still greatly improved versus the April low of -0.49.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Activity Index (percent) | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.73 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.15 | -0.11 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.26 | -0.27 | -0.47 | 0.15 | -- | -- | -- |
| Diffusion Index | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.29 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| Production & Income | 0.00 | 0.08 | -0.49 | 0.37 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.06 | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.24 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.05 | -0.00 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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