Global| Dec 13 2005Chain Store Sales Up: Restrained by Higher Energy Prices?
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales last week gained back 0.9% of the prior period's 3.1% collapse. Nevertheless, sales so far in December are 2.9% below the November [...]
Lower chain store sales in December were accompanied by retail gasoline prices which crept higher to $2.19 per gallon (18.3% y/y) after two weeks at the cycle's low of $2.15. In addition, the spot market price for unleaded gasoline yesterday rose to $1.65 per gallon, up more than 20 cents (16%) from the November low. Perhaps looming larger is the spike in natural gas prices. Yesterday's spot price of $14.8 mmbtu easily doubled last year's and that gain adds to an increase in retail costs which through October totaled 45.3% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC added 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) to the 1.0% surge the prior week.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 12/10/05 | 12/03/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 444.5 | 440.6 | 3.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
