Global| Dec 31 2002Chain Store Sales Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales rose during Christmas week. The 2.1% w/w gain was the third consecutive weekly rise according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The late month surge in sales finally recouped a sharp decline early in the month and pulled [...]
Chain store sales rose during Christmas week. The 2.1% w/w gain was the third consecutive weekly rise according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
The late month surge in sales finally recouped a sharp decline early in the month and pulled December sales to date 0.1% (2.8% y/y) above the November average. Sales in December fell slightly m/m last year after dropping 1.0% in 2000.
During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. That correlation rose to 63% during the last five years.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 12/28/02 | 12/21/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 409.0 | 400.4 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
by Tom Moeller December 31, 2002
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence for December fell unexpectedly. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 86.0. November confidence was revised up slightly.
The 5.4% m/m decline in Consumer Confidence was the eighth of the year. The decline in Confidence ran counter to the December rise in Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.
The decline in confidence reflected lower readings of both the present situation and consumer expectations. The decline in the present situation reading was sharp.
During the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of Consumer Confidence and the y/y percent change in real PCE. That correlation rose to 74% during the last five years.
The Conference Board's survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 80.3 | 84.9 | -15.1% | 96.6 | 106.6 | 139.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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