Global| Oct 03 2006Chain Store Sales & Gasoline Prices Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS indicated that chain store sales fell last week. The 0.3% decline was the fourth drop in as many weeks and pulled the average of sales in September 0.5% below August.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS reversed all of the prior week's decline with a 0.7% rise, the third gain in the last four weeks. The indicator in September rose 0.7% from the August average, the first m/m rise since June. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/30/06 | 09/23/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 463.0 | 464.2 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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